| 山西省初中教育发展规模预测与分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 董新良,张海明.山西省初中教育发展规模预测与分析[J].教育理论与实践,2006(23). |
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| 作者姓名： | 董新良 张海明 |
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| 作者单位： | 山西师范大学教育学院 山西临汾041004 |
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| 基金项目： | 山西师范大学董新良副教授主持的教育部“十五”教育规划课题《中西部地区义务教育问题研究》(FHB030739)的阶段性成果之一 |
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| 摘 要： | 山西省2006-2011年初中教育的发展规模是在充分考虑时间序列相关性的影响下,使用Eviews软件,采用线性回归模型进行的。关于山西省2006-2011年初中教育的发展规模预测结果表明,在此期间山西省的初中教育规模将会因2002年所实施的小学学制的变更而产生较大的波动,并对山西省的初中教育发展规模产生较大影响。因此,山西省的教育管理部门需未雨绸缪,提前做好应对工作。
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| 关 键 词： | 初中教育 发展规模 预测 计量方法 |
Prediction and Analysis of the development in Junior High Schools in Shanxi Province |
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| DONG Xin-liang,ZHANG Hai-ming.Prediction and Analysis of the development in Junior High Schools in Shanxi Province[J].Theory and Practice of Education,2006(23). |
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| Authors: | DONG Xin-liang ZHANG Hai-ming |
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| Abstract: | With full consideration given to the influence of time serial correlation and by using Eviews and adopting Linear Regression Model, the paper predicts the educational development scale of Junior Secondary Schools in Shanxi Province in the next five years. During this period of time, great changes in the development of junior high schools will take place as a result of the change of primary educational system in 2002 which will affect the education development of junior high schools in Shanxi Province. Therefore, the educational authorities in Shanxi Province should do the preparatory work well to meet with the situation. |
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| Keywords: | junior education development scale predict econometric methods |
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