| 情景分析方法在突发事件应急决策中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨从杰,曹双.情景分析方法在突发事件应急决策中的应用[J].现代情报,2013,33(11):29-32. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨从杰 曹双 |
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| 作者单位： | 暨南大学管理学院, 广东 广州510632 |
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| 摘 要： | 突发事件一旦出现,事前规划难以应对不断衍变的突发事件。依靠良好的分析工具可以帮助决策者把握时机,基于当前信息对危机趋势进行分析。本文通过对应急决策和情景分析方法的论述,从不确定性分析、动态分析和阶段性决策角度进行结合,设计一套基于情景分析的应急决策机制,从而为突发事件应急管理提供一种基于"情景——应对"模式的方法和思路。
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| 关 键 词： | 情景分析 情景——应对 应急沟通 应急决策 |
The Application of Scenario Analysis Method in Emergency Decision- making |
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| Authors: | Yang Congjie Cao Shuang |
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| Institution: | Management School, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China |
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| Abstract: | Once the emergency appears, advance planning is di~cult to cope with constantly changing of emergency. Re- lying on good analysis tools, decision makers can seize the moment, and analysis the trend on the basis cff the current crisis infor- marion. Based on the emergency decision- making and scenario analysis merit, this paper give an angle which combine uncer- tainty analysis, dynamic analysis and phased decision- making, design a set of emergency decision- making mechanism based on scenario analysis, so as to provide emergency management a method and train of thought which based on the ＂scenario- response＂ model. |
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| Keywords: | scenario analysis scenario- response emergency communication emergency decision- making |
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