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Maximum Likelihood Dynamic Factor Modeling for Arbitrary N and T Using SEM
Authors:Manuel C Voelkle  Johan H L Oud  Timo von Oertzen  Ulman Lindenberger
Institution:1. Max Planck Institute for Human Development;2. Radboud University
Abstract:This article has 3 objectives that build on each other. First, we demonstrate how to obtain maximum likelihood estimates for dynamic factor models (the direct autoregressive factor score model) with arbitrary T and N by means of structural equation modeling (SEM) and compare the approach to existing methods. Second, we go beyond standard time series analysis (T large and N = 1) and conventional SEM (N large and T = 1 or small) by integrating both approaches. The resulting combined model offers a variety of new modeling options including a direct test of the ergodicity hypothesis, according to which the factorial structure of an individual observed at many time points is identical to the factorial structure of a group of individuals observed at a single point in time. Third, we illustrate the flexibility of SEM time series modeling by extending the approach to account for complex error structures. We end with a discussion of current limitations and future applications of SEM-based time series modeling for arbitrary T and N.
Keywords:dynamic factor analysis  factorial invariance  maximum likelihood estimation  time series analysis
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