| 足球守门员扑救难度定量化研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 费郁红,李云广,王志博,刘冬梅.足球守门员扑救难度定量化研究[J].广州体育学院学报,2019(3):78-83. |
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| 作者姓名： | 费郁红 李云广 王志博 刘冬梅 |
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| 作者单位： | ( 1.哈尔滨体育学院，黑龙江 哈尔滨〓150008；2. 哈尔滨学院 体育学院，黑龙江 哈尔滨〓150001) |
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| 摘 要： | 以2016-2017赛季，英超、德甲、意甲、西甲等四大联赛共64场比赛551个射门数据为研究对象，运用logistic分析法建立守门员扑救难度多因素回归方程式，探究守门员扑救难度的主要影响因素，以达到定量化评价足球守门员扑救难度的目的。结果表明，影响守门员扑救难度的主要因素是：射门后球到达球门时间、射门者前方有无防守人员、射门者后方或侧后方有无防守人员、射门的部位(即头或腿)，射门种类(即平直球、弧线球、地滚球)、射门路线选择，进球高度，球的运行轨迹是否因其他球员碰触发生改变、射门角度、进球距离。经检验，该回归方程预测守门员扑救成败的准确率达84.8%。这对于客观评价守门员扑救能力有现实意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 足球守门员 扑救能力 logistic回归分析 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018/11/18 0:00:00 |
Quantitative Study on the Difficulty Degree of Soccer Goalkeepers Fighting Ability |
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| Abstract: | The paper based on 551 shooting data of 64 matches in the four leagues of the Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A and Spain in the 2016-2017 season, the logistic analysis method was used to establish the regression equation of the goalkeeper''s rescue difficulty, and explored the main influencing factors of the goalkeeper''s rescue difficulty, in order to quantitatively evaluate the goal of the goalkeeper''s rescue difficulty. The results show that the main factors affecting the goalkeeper difficulty fighting is as follows. Shot after the ball goal time, shot with no defense personnel arrived at the front, rear or side shot behind the non-defense personnel, shooting positions (i.e. head or legs), shoot types (i.e. straight ball, curve ball, ground ball), scoring high goal line selection, running track ball as the other the player touches the change and the shooting angle, goal distance. After testing, the accuracy of the regression equation to predict the goalkeeper''s rescue success was 84.8%. It is significance for the objective evaluation of the goalkeeper''s fighting ability. |
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| Keywords: | football goalkeepers rescue ability logistic regression analysis |
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