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| 厦门市滩涂养殖区变化趋势的预测 | |
| 引用本文： | 林巧莺,林广发,陈志鸿.厦门市滩涂养殖区变化趋势的预测[J].泉州师范学院学报,2008,26(2):81-84. |
| 作者姓名： | 林巧莺 林广发 陈志鸿 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 泉州师范学院,资源与环境科学学院,福建,泉州,362000 2. 福建师范大学,地理科学学院,福建,福州,350007 3. 厦门市环境保护所,福建,厦门,3610006 |
| 摘 要： | 分别采用回归分析方法、灰色数列预测方法及时间序列预测中的差分自回归移动平均法（ARIMA）对厦门市滩涂养殖区面积的变化趋势进行模拟，结果表明：ARIMA（2，2，0）模型的拟合效果最好，三次多项式曲线模型和灰色GM（1，1）预测模型的拟合误差均较大．采用ARIMA（2，2，0）模型和三次多项式曲线模型分别对滩涂养殖区面积变化趋势进行短期预测和长期预测，预测结果表明滩涂养殖区的面积呈逐渐下降趋势． |
| 关 键 词： | 回归分析 灰色预测 ARIMA模型 滩涂养殖区 |
| 文章编号： | 1009-8224(2008)02-0081-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年10月14 |
Change Tendency of Beach Cultivation Area in Xiamen |
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| LIN Qiao-ying,LIN Guang-fa,CHEN Zhi-hong.Change Tendency of Beach Cultivation Area in Xiamen[J].Journal of Quanzhou Normal College,2008,26(2):81-84. | |
| Authors: | LIN Qiao-ying LIN Guang-fa CHEN Zhi-hong |
| Institution: | LIN Qiao-ying, LIN Guang-fa,CHEN Zhi-hong (1. School of Resources and Environmental Science, Quanzhou Normal University, Fujian 362000,China 2. College of Geographical Science, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China 3. Xiamen Environmental Protection Research Institute,Fujian 361006 ,China) |
| Abstract: | By means of the regression analysis method, the gray series forecast and the auto-regressive integrated moving average process （ARIMA） of time series forecast, the beach chltivation area change tendency is simulated in Xiamen. The results show that the fitting precision is best with the ARIMA （2,2,0） model and the others the GM （1,1） model. Then, the short-term and long-term forecasts to beach cultivation area change tendency are separately carried on through the ARIMA （2,2,0） model and cubic curve model,and the result indicates that the area is on the decline. |
| Keywords: | regression analysis gray forecast ARIMA model beach cultivation |
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