| 基于元胞自动机带有隔离干预的传染病模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 刚家泰,戴钦武,李淑娟,谭欣欣.基于元胞自动机带有隔离干预的传染病模型[J].大连大学学报,2014(3):6-10,18. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刚家泰 戴钦武 李淑娟 谭欣欣 |
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| 作者单位： | 大连大学信息工程学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(51075047) |
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| 摘 要： | 考虑了个体的异质性、移动性和个体间的有效接触传染概率,提出了基于元胞自动机带有隔离干预的传染病仿真建模方法。扩展了传统的Moore邻域,模拟仿真了不同的染病停留时间和隔离力度对传染病传播的影响。仿真结果与采用隔离干预对传染病传播的宏观特征相吻合。研究表明:对已感染的患者,染病停留时间越短,采取隔离措施的力度越大,对传染病传播的抑制作用越显著。可为政府和相关部门对传染病制定有效的遏制措施提供理论支持。
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| 关 键 词： | 元胞自动机 隔离干预 扩展的Moore邻域 |
A CA-Based Epidemic Model with Isolated Intervention |
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| GANG Jia-tai;DAI Qin-wu;LI Shu-juan;TAN Xin-xin.A CA-Based Epidemic Model with Isolated Intervention[J].Journal of Dalian University,2014(3):6-10,18. |
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| Authors: | GANG Jia-tai;DAI Qin-wu;LI Shu-juan;TAN Xin-xin |
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| Institution: | GANG Jia-tai;DAI Qin-wu;LI Shu-juan;TAN Xin-xin;College of Information Engineering,Dalian University; |
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| Abstract: | The paper is considering the individual heterogeneity, mobility and the effective infection probability between individuals; it is proposed that a simulation model with isolation intervention based on cellular automata. The classical Moore neighborhood is extended to simulate the effect of different disease duration and isolated intensity, and the simulation result is coincidence with the macroscopic characteristics of epidemic controlled by isolation intervention. Researches show that to the infected, the smaller of disease duration, the greater of isolation intensity, and the more significant inhibition on the spread of epidemic will be, which can provide powerful theoretical support for the government and relevant departments to prevent and control the spread of epidemic more effectively, too. |
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| Keywords: | cellular automata isolated intervention extended Moore neighborhood |
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