Climate Change and its Impact on Water Resources in the Huai River Basin |
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| Authors: | ZUO Qiting CHEN Yaobin TAO Jie |
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| Institution: | Center for Water Science Research, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan 450001, China |
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| Abstract: | Rainfall and air temperature data from six meteorological stations above the Bengbu Sluice and hydrological and water resources evaluation data from the Bengbu Hydrological Station in the Huai River Basin from 1961 to 2008 are used to analyze the impact of changes in climatic factors on the amount of water resources in the Basin. There was a general trend of rise in its average annual air temperature, with the highest increase of 0.289oC/10a recorded at Bengbu in Anhui Province. Rising rainfall was mainly observed in the western part of the study area, while rainfall actually declined in the eastern part, i.e. the middle reaches of the Huai River. The Average rainfall in the study area was in a vaguely declining trend. In other words, the rainfall in the Basin is still much affected by natural fluctuations. On the whole, there was a trend of gradual decrease in the quantity of the Basin’s water resources for the period under study. Water resources quantity is found to fall with decreasing rainfall and rising air temperature. Regression analysis is used to establish a mathematical model between water resources quantity and climatic factors (i.e. air temperature and rainfall) in order to explore the impact of climate change on water resources in the Basin. Moreover, various scenarios are set to quantitatively analyze the response of water resources to climate change. Sensitivity analysis shows that changes in rainfall have a much bigger impact on its water resources quantity than changes in its air temperature. |
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| Keywords: | climate change Huai River water resources R/S analysis |
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