| 基于灰色系统理论的城市旅游产业经济发展实证研究——以宁波市为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐春红.基于灰色系统理论的城市旅游产业经济发展实证研究——以宁波市为例[J].昆明大学学报,2014(1):82-87. |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐春红 |
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| 作者单位： | 宁波职业技术学院国贸系 |
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| 基金项目： | 2012浙江省教育厅高校科研计划（Y201225192）;2011浙江省旅游科学研究课题（2011ZC24） |
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| 摘 要： | 采用灰色系统理论中的灰色关联度分析法，结合相关性分析，对宁波旅游产业2006—2012年产业数据进行实证分析。结果表明：影响宁波旅游产业发展首要因子是地区对外开放程度和经济水平，应继续巩固其主导地位；接待设施建设和信息化技术运用是未来需要着力拓展提升的关键要素；而交通建设、生态环保及人才培养方面需迎头赶上，并积极谋求创新转变。运用灰色预测GM（1，1）模型预测未来5年宁波旅游产业发展势头强劲，需借助“十二五”发展契机积极转变发展模式，大力发展旅游产业。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色系统理论 旅游 产业经济 宁波 |
An empirical study of the city tourism industry economy development based on gray system theory --A case study of Ningbo |
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| Institution: | XU Chun - hong |
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| Abstract: | Based on the gray correlative degree analysis method to make an empirical study of annual industry data from 2006 to 2010 years of Ningbo tourism industry, the findings indicate that two primary factors which affect the growth of Ningbo tourism in- dustry are the degree of opening and the level of economy, and we should continue to consolidate their leading positions ; the tourist infrastructure construction and information technology integration are the key elements to further the development of tourism industry in the next 5 years; traffic construction, ecological environmental protection and human resource training are the vital elements to be innovated actively. The gray forecast GM （ 1, 1 ） model for Ningbo tourism industry economy has given a precision of prediction that Ningbo tourism will get a boosting development in the next five years and we should actively change the development model, vigorously develop Ningbo tourism industry with ＂Twelfth Five - Year Plan＂ development opportunities. |
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| Keywords: | gray system theory tourism industry economy Ningbo |
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