Concern about forecasts of national faculty shortages and the importance of local studies |
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| Authors: | Steve Chatman PhD Loren Jung PhD |
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| Institution: | (1) University of Missouri System, USA;(2) Budget and Analytical Services, University of Missouri, 104 University Hall, 65211 Columbia, MO |
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| Abstract: | The higher education popular press has published several forecasts of faculty shortages due to the mass retirement of expansion era faculty and the forecasted low numbers of doctoral graduates. These forecasts of national shortages encouraged a local study of faculty attrition in a four-campus university system. The local study considered two factors not accounted for in national studies but important locally: whether disciplinary field of study or campus location (urban or rural) has been associated with faculty attrition in the recent past and should therefore be considered when modeling demand for new faculty. Discipline and institution location were found to have no significant effect on the likelihood of faculty to continue employment from year to year when faculty age was controlled. Although retirement rate was expected to increase, no evidence of mass retirements producing an increased demand for new faculty was found. The lack of forecasted increases in demand for faculty locally led to reconsideration of national forecast studies, especially when it was determined that the age distribution of faculty across system campuses was similar to faculty nationwide. This paper questions whether there is sufficient evidence, as presented in the popular press, to support special action to increase the supply of faculty.Presented at the Thirty-first Annual Forum of the Association for Institutional Research, San Francisco, May 26–29, 1991. |
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