| 上海市科技服务业与制造业互动发展实证研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 郑苏江,吴忠.上海市科技服务业与制造业互动发展实证研究[J].科技管理研究,2020,40(17):81-87. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 郑苏江 吴忠 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 上海工程技术大学管理学院,上海201620;上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 上海市人民政府决策咨询研究重点课题：纽约、东京、伦敦制造业发展模式及对上海的启示（编号2017-A-023）； |
| |
| 摘 要： | 基于上海市2003—2017年科技服务业与制造业的相关数据,构建VAR向量自回归模型与ECM误差修正模型,从变量平稳性检验、协整检验、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应、方差分解等五个维度分析样本指标数据间的长短期动态作用机制,实证研究了上海市科技服务业与制造业的产业发展互动关系。研究结果表明,上海市科技服务业与制造业之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;科技服务业的发展是影响制造业发展的格兰杰因,反之不成立,两个变量之间存在长期的正向互动影响效应;上海市科技服务业的发展对制造业的发展产生了较为显著的长期波动影响,但二者之间的互动融合发展成效有待进一步优化与完善。
|
| 关 键 词： | 科技服务业 制造业 VAR模型 Granger因果检验 互动发展 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/11/3 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019/12/9 0:00:00 |
An Empirical Study on the Interactive Development of Science and Technology Services and Manufacturing Industry in Shanghai |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on the data of science and technology service industry and manufacturing industry in Shanghai from 2003 to 2017, this paper constructs VAR model and Error Correction Model, analyzes the long-term and short-term dynamic mechanism of sample index data from five dimensions: variable stability test, cointegration test, Granger causality test, impulse response, variance decomposition, and empirically studies the relationship between science and technology service industry and manufacturing industry in Shanghai Industrial development interaction. The results show that: there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the science and technology service industry and manufacturing industry in Shanghai; the development of science and technology service industry is the Granger cause that affects the development of manufacturing industry; otherwise, there is a long-term positive interaction effect between the two variables; the development of science and technology service industry in Shanghai has a significant long-term fluctuation effect on the development of manufacturing industry, but the second is that The development effect of interaction and integration between them needs to be further optimized and improved. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《科技管理研究》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《科技管理研究》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
