| 基于概率论的风险型决策及应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 彭玉忠.基于概率论的风险型决策及应用[J].西安文理学院学报,2009,12(2):48-52. |
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| 作者姓名： | 彭玉忠 |
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| 作者单位： | 江苏省运河高等师范学校数学系,江苏,邳州,221300
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| 摘 要： | 运用概率论处理运筹学中的风险型决策问题，得到一些具有实际意义的结果：运用状态概率和方案的期望值确立风险型决策的指导原则；运用树型图直观表示风险型决策方案的形成过程；以转移概率为特征值对风险型决策方案进行稳定性分析；运用Bayes概率计算公式对决策方案进行前、后验分析和调整．
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| 关 键 词： | 概率论 风险型决策 依据原则 树型图 转移概率 Bayes公式 |
On the Application of the Probability Theory in Risk Decision-making |
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| PENG Yu-zhong.On the Application of the Probability Theory in Risk Decision-making[J].Journal of Xi‘an University of Arts & Science:Natural Science Edition,2009,12(2):48-52. |
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| Authors: | PENG Yu-zhong |
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| Institution: | PENG Yu-zhong (Department of Mathematics,Yunhe Teachers＇ College, Pizhou 221300,China) |
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| Abstract: | The probability theory is an important tool in operational research. In this paper, using the probability theory to deal with the issue of risk decision-making in operational research, we obtain some practical and interesting results ： establishing principles of risk decision-making by the state probability and program expectations; intuitively representing the process of risk decision-making program by treelike diagram; obtaining the stability analysis for risk decision-making program by the character of transfer probability; obtaining the pre-and post-mortem analysis and adjustment of decision-making program by Bayes formula. Since theory,methods and examples are combined, there are practical usability and good reference. |
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| Keywords: | probability risk decision-making based on the principle treelike diagram transition probability Bayes formula |
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