| 基于子集门限自回归模型的负荷短期预测(英文) |
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| 引用本文： | 孙海健.基于子集门限自回归模型的负荷短期预测(英文)[J].东南大学学报,1999(2). |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙海健 |
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| 作者单位： | 东南大学电气工程系!南京210096 |
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| 摘 要： | 介绍了时间序列的子集门限自回归模型，该模型可以复现非线性时间序列的周期性或季节性趋势．文中给出了子集门限自回归模型的辨识方法并应用于电力负荷的建模和短期预报．应用实例表明，其预测精度较高．
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| 关 键 词： | 电力负荷 预测 子集门限自回归模型 辨识 |
Short Term Load Forecasting Using Subset Threshold Auto Regressive Model |
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| Abstract: | The subset threshold auto regressive (SSTAR) model, which is capable of reproducing the limit cycle behavior of nonlinear time series, is introduced. The algorithm for fitting the sampled data with SSTAR model is proposed and applied to model and forecast power load. Numerical example verifies that desirable accuracy of short term load forecasting can be achieved by using the SSTAR model. |
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| Keywords: | power load forecasting subset threshold auto regressive model |
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