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| 1980—2019年中国粮食主产区主要粮食作物气候生产潜力与气候资源利用效率 | |
| 引用本文： | 罗海平,邹楠,胡学英,王圣云.1980—2019年中国粮食主产区主要粮食作物气候生产潜力与气候资源利用效率[J].资源科学,2021,43(6):1234-1247. |
| 作者姓名： | 罗海平 邹楠 胡学英 王圣云 |
| 作者单位： | 1.南昌大学中国中部经济社会发展研究中心,南昌 330031 2.中共江西省委党校,南昌 330108 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(42061026);江西省高校人文社会科学重点研究基地项目(JD20111);江西省社会科学基金项目(20MJ02) |
| 摘 要： | 随着全球性极端气候频发,粮食生产安全越来越受到气候变化的威胁。在此背景下,实现农业气候资源的高效持续利用意义重大。粮食主产区是粮食安全保障的核心区域,本文应用逐级订正的机制法模型测算了1980—2019年中国粮食主产区玉米、水稻、小麦三大主要粮食作物的气候生产潜力,并应用重心迁移模型分析了粮食主产区186个地级市现实作物生产水平与气候生产潜力的时空属性,在市域尺度上评估了农业气候资源利用效率。研究得出：①1980—2019年粮食主产区玉米、水稻、小麦气候生产潜力的倾向率分别为-156.80、68.82、121.92 kg/（hm2·10 a）;②玉米气候生产潜力高值区和低值区范围均缩小,水稻气候生产潜力空间结构较为稳定,小麦气候生产潜力高值区范围扩大;③主要粮食作物气候生产潜力的重心迁移距离均小于现实迁移距离,并呈同向化特征;④黄淮海农业区、东北农业区、西南农业区等地主要粮食作物气候资源利用率较高,长江中下游农业区等地气候资源利用率较低。对此,应调整粮食生产重心,缓解气候条件较差地区的粮食生产压力,挖掘气候资源丰富地区的气候生产潜力,全面提高粮食主产区气候资源利用效率。 |
| 关 键 词： | 气候生产潜力 中国粮食主产区 农业气候资源利用效率 重心迁移 粮食作物 机制法 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-05-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2020-09-21 |
Climatic potential productivity and resources utilization efficiency of major grain crops in the main grain production areas of China, 1980-2019 |
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| LUO Haiping,ZOU Nan,HU Xueying,WANG Shengyun.Climatic potential productivity and resources utilization efficiency of major grain crops in the main grain production areas of China, 1980-2019[J].Resources Science,2021,43(6):1234-1247. | |
| Authors: | LUO Haiping ZOU Nan HU Xueying WANG Shengyun |
| Institution: | 1. Research Center of Central China Economic and Social Development, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China 2. Party School of CPC of Jiangxi, Nanchang 330108, China |
| Abstract: | Food production has been increasingly threatened by the frequent occurrences of global extreme climate. Under this background, it is of great significance to realize the efficient and sustainable utilization of agricultural climatic resources. The main grain production areas in China are a core region for food security of the country. This study empirically calculated maize, rice, and wheat crop climatic potential productivities in the main grain production areas of China from 1980 to 2019 by using step-correcting mechanism model, and analyzed the spatial and temporal dynamics of actual production level and climatic potential productivity in 186 cities in these areas by using a gravity center shift model. It also comprehensively assessed agricultural climatic resources utilization efficiency at the city scale. Important results are as follows: (1) Tendency rate of maize, rice, and wheat crop climatic potential productivity in the main grain production areas of China from 1980 to 2019 was -156.80 kg/(hm2·10 a), 68.82 kg/(hm2·10 a), and 121.92 kg/(hm2·10 a) respectively. (2) Spatial change of climatic potential productivity showed three characteristics higher and lower maize climatic potential productivity areas both narrowed; spatial structure of rice climatic potential productivity basically remained unchanged; and higher wheat climatic potential productivity area enlarged. (3) Gravity centers of actual production level and climatic potential productivity changed in the same direction and the distance of migration of climatic potential productivity gravity center was shorter than that of actual production level. (4) Agricultural climatic resources utilization efficiency was higher in the agricultural areas of the North China Plain, Northeast China, and Southwest China, and agricultural climatic resources utilization efficiency was lower in the agricultural area of the Lower Yangtze Region. Therefore, it is necessary to adjust the focus of grain production. The utilization efficiency of climatic resources in the main grain producing areas can be comprehensively improved by alleviating the pressure of grain production in areas with poor climatic conditions, and tapping the climatic potential productivity of areas with rich climatic resources. |
| Keywords: | climatic potential productivity main grain production areas of China agricultural climatic resources utilization efficiency migration of gravity center grain crops mechanism method |
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