| 江西省2008年汛期降水环流背景分析及预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 张传江,张超美,马锋敏.江西省2008年汛期降水环流背景分析及预测研究[J].科技广场,2009(3). |
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| 作者姓名： | 张传江 张超美 马锋敏 |
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| 作者单位： | 江西省气候中心,江西,南昌,330046 |
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| 基金项目： | 江西省气象科技创新基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用逐日降水资料.计算2008年汛期(4～6月)降水量和洪涝指数.分析表明,汛期全省总降水量略偏少,无明显的大范围洪涝发生,呈现出南多北少、前少后多的时空分布特征.应用500hPa月平均高度场及距平场、西北太平洋副高特征量、海温、南海季风指教及前期气候资科,对2008年汛期降水特点进行了环流背景分析及预测研究.结果表明:北半球极涡中心强度偏弱.中纬度西风带北支锋区较为平直、位置偏北,副高偏弱、偏东、偏北是2008年汛期降水偏少的主要环流背景.汛期降水量存在着明显的周期变化.2000年以来处于少雨阶段、娜尼拉事件发生、南海季风爆发日期偏早、上年秋季降水偏少等,均是汛期降水偏少的预测强信号.
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| 关 键 词： | 降水特征 环流背景 预测研究 |
The Analysis of Circulation Background and Prediction Research of Precipitation in Rainy Season in Jiangxi Province in 2008 |
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| Zhang Chuanjiang,Zhang Chaomei,Ma Fengmin.The Analysis of Circulation Background and Prediction Research of Precipitation in Rainy Season in Jiangxi Province in 2008[J].Science Mosaic,2009(3). |
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| Authors: | Zhang Chuanjiang Zhang Chaomei Ma Fengmin |
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| Institution: | Jiangxi Climatic Center;Jiangxi Nanchang 330046 |
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| Abstract: | The precipitation and floods index in Rainy Season in Jiangxi Province in 2008 are calculated by using the daily rainfall data.The results show that the total rainfall in rainy season over the province is further scanty.No-flooding occurred obviously,and the flooding is characterized by the feature of southern more/northern less and front less/back more.Based on the monthly mean 500hpa geopotential heights and anomalies data,the northwest Pacific subtropical high characteristics data,SST data,South China Mo... |
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| Keywords: | Precipitation Characteristics Circulation Background Prediction Research |
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