| 中国研究生在校生规模中长期预测——国际比较的视角 |
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| 作者单位： | 清华大学教育研究所 北京100084(李锋亮，袁本涛)，清华大学研究生院 北京100084(刘惠琴) |
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| 摘 要： | 本研究利用世界各国、各地区近年来的有关数据,通过不同的模型,从国际比较的视角对于中国研究生在校生规模的中长期发展进行了预测,结果表明,到2010年中国博士生在校生的适宜规模在17万人左右,整个研究生在校生的适宜规模为138万人左右;2020年中国博士生在校生的适宜规模在21-28万人左右,整个研究生在校生的适宜规模为171-228万人左右。基于上述预测结果,我们认为在2010年之前,中国的博士生规模扩张的空间十分有限,而硕士生规模仍然有一定的增长空间。
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| 关 键 词： | 研究生教育 规模 预测 国际比较 |
The mid-and-long term forecast of the scale of post-graducate enrolment in China: from an international comparative perspective |
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| Authors: | LI Feng-liang YUAN Ben-tao LIU Hui-qin |
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| Institution: | LI Feng-liang1,YUAN Ben-tao1,LIU Hui-qin2 |
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| Abstract: | Using data from international countries and districts of recent years,this paper develops different statistical models and makes a mid-and-long term forecast of the post-graduate education scale in China from an international comparative perspective.The data analysis indicates in China the feasible scale of doctoral enrolment should be about 170 thousands and the feasible scale of post-graduate enrolment should be about 1.38 millions in 2010;the feasible scale of doctoral enrolment should be about 210-280 thousands and the feasible scale of post-graduate enrolment should be about 1.71-2.28 millions in 2020.Following the forecast above,the authors conclude that before 2010,the space of expansion of doctoral education is rather limited while there are some spaces for the expansion of master's education. |
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| Keywords: | post-graduate education scale forecast international comparison |
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