Assessing the progress and the underlying nature of the flows
of doctoral and master degree candidates using absorbing Markov chains |
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| Authors: | Miles G Nicholls |
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| Institution: | (1) Graduate School of Business, RMIT University, Building 108, Level 11,239 Bourke Street, GPO Box 2476V, 3001 Melbourne, Victoria, Australia |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, absorbing markov chains are used to analyse the flows of higher degree by research candidates (doctoral and
master) within an Australian faculty of business. The candidates are analysed according to whether they are full time or part
time. The need for such analysis stemmed from what appeared to be a rather poor completion rate (as reported by the University
concerned). However, this reported completion rate was a ‘macro’ figure that aggregated PhD and Master (by full time and part
time) completions together. If there really was a problem, then the Faculty needed to know where in the system it was and
what potentially might then be done to remedy the problem. The assembling of data into an appropriate database was difficult
and required considerable care, but an adequate database was developed. The application of the absorbing markov chains to
the problem resulted in an increase in the level of understanding associated with the long term underlying probabilities of
completion and also expected durations of candidature. This information highlighted one area of concern. With the information
gained from this study, appropriate strategies can subsequently be put in place for the rectification of some of the areas
of concern discovered in the analysis. Areas for further research are also highlighted in this paper.
Based on an earlier version of a paper delivered at the Western Decisions Sciences Institute 34th Meeting, Vancouver, Canada,
2005. |
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| Keywords: | finite absorbing markov chains higher education |
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