| 基于SD模型的中山市水资源系统特征及其演变规律分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 位帅,陈志和,梁剑喜,黄晶,银磊,朱志华.基于SD模型的中山市水资源系统特征及其演变规律分析[J].资源科学,2014,36(6):1158-1167. |
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| 作者姓名： | 位帅 陈志和 梁剑喜 黄晶 银磊 朱志华 |
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| 作者单位： | 中山大学水资源与环境系, 广州510275;华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室, 广州510275;中山大学水资源与环境系, 广州510275;华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室, 广州510275;中山市水务局, 中山528400;中山市水务局, 中山528400;中山大学水资源与环境系, 广州510275;华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室, 广州510275;中山大学水资源与环境系, 广州510275;华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室, 广州510275 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（编号：51379225；50909107）；中山大学青年教师培育项目（编号：2011370003161402）。 |
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| 摘 要： | 当前水资源安全问题日趋严重,了解水资源系统特征及其演变规律对解决水资源安全问题有着重要指导意义。本文利用系统动力学(SD)方法建立水资源系统模型,并以广东省中山市为研究对象分析其水资源系统各制约因素,寻求系统主要驱动因子及其在这些因子驱动作用下系统的演变规律。研究结果表明:①工业污水排放系数、污水集中处理率、GDP增长率和污水回用率为中山市水资源系统主要驱动因子;②适当提高污水集中处理率和降低工业污水排放系数有利于中山市经济健康快速发展;③缺水程度受GDP增长率的影响较大,当GDP增长率分别提高5%、10%、15%和20%时,相应缺水程度分别达到4.5%、7%、10%和13%,而污水回用率的提高对于缺水程度的改善有着显著效果。研究成果可为中山市水资源管理提供参考与科学依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 水资源系统 SD模型 驱动因子 演变规律 中山市 |
Analysis of Water Resource System Characteristics and Variation Law for Zhongshan City Based on System Dynamics |
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| WEI Shuai,CHEN Zhihe,LIANG Jianxi,HUANG Jing,YIN Lei and ZHU Zhihua.Analysis of Water Resource System Characteristics and Variation Law for Zhongshan City Based on System Dynamics[J].Resources Science,2014,36(6):1158-1167. |
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| Authors: | WEI Shuai CHEN Zhihe LIANG Jianxi HUANG Jing YIN Lei and ZHU Zhihua |
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| Institution: | Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China;Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong Higher Education Institutes, Guangzhou 510275, China;Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China;Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong Higher Education Institutes, Guangzhou 510275, China;Zhongshan Water Authority, Zhongshan 528400, China;Zhongshan Water Authority, Zhongshan 528400, China;Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China;Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong Higher Education Institutes, Guangzhou 510275, China;Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China;Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong Higher Education Institutes, Guangzhou 510275, China |
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| Abstract: | Water resources are critical to maintaining human life support systems. Achieving the sustainable utilization of water resources is key to sustainable social and economic development. The issue of water security is becoming increasingly serious, and solving this problem requires understanding the characteristics of water resource systems and variation law. This paper established a water resources system model for Zhongshan, Province, China to analyze influencing factors, main driving factors and system variation law under the effect of these factors using system dynamics (SD) methods. We found that the major driving factors of the water resource system in Zhongshan include the coefficient of industrial sewage, centralized treatment rate of sewage, growth rate of GDP and recycle rate of sewage. It will benefit Zhongshan's rapid development if we improve the centralized treatment rate of sewage and reduce the discharge of wastewater. Water shortage degree is strongly influenced by GDP growth rate, when the GDP growth rate increased by 5%, 10%, 15% and 20%, the corresponding water shortage degree reached 4.5%, 7%, 10% and 13%, respectively. However, improving the recycling rate of sewage can obviously alleviate water. These results are of scientific significance to current water pollution and water shortage problems caused by population growth and urbanization across Zhongshan. |
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| Keywords: | water resources system SD model driving factors variation law Zhongshan city |
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