| 改进GM（1,1）预测模型在公路运输量中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 许大宏.改进GM（1,1）预测模型在公路运输量中的应用[J].连云港职业技术学院学报,2011,24(1):9-13. |
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| 作者姓名： | 许大宏 |
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| 作者单位： | 镇江高等职业技术学校,江苏,镇江,212016 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了提高公路交通运输量的预测精度和公路运输行业的管理水平,研究了GM（1,1）模型特性、GM（1,1）在背景值和初始值选择两方面所存在的缺陷;提出一种新的背景值计算方法;最后,利用2000-2004年的公路客运量的实际数据进行了验证,结果表明：改进模型的预测精度要高于GM（1,1）模型的预测精度,前者比后者具有更高的预测精度和可靠性.
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| 关 键 词： | GM（1 1）模型 预测 背景值 公路交通运输量 |
Application of Improved GM(1,1)Prediction Model to Road Traffic |
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| XU Da-hong.Application of Improved GM(1,1)Prediction Model to Road Traffic[J].Journal of Lianyungang Technical College,2011,24(1):9-13. |
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| Authors: | XU Da-hong |
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| Institution: | XU Da-hong(Zhenjiang Vocational Technical College,Zhenjiang 212016,China) |
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| Abstract: | To improve the prediction precision of road traffic and management level of the transportation industry,the paper makes a study of GM(1,1) model and its defect in choice of background value and initial value.The paper also offers a new algorithm of background value.Furthermore,the paper verifies it using data of 2000 and 2004.The findings show the prediction precision of the improved model is higher than that of GM(1,1).The former is more reliable that the latter. |
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| Keywords: | GM(1 1) model prediction background value road traffic |
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