| 技术进步、产业升级、收入差距与劳动力转移 ——基于新疆南疆的实证研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 苏荟,孙毅.技术进步、产业升级、收入差距与劳动力转移 ——基于新疆南疆的实证研究[J].科研管理,2006,40(12):182-191. |
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| 作者姓名： | 苏荟 孙毅 |
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| 作者单位： | 石河子大学师范学院，新疆 石河子832003 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文采用VEC模型、脉冲响应、方差分解等方法对1995-2015年新疆南疆地区农业技术进步、产业结构升级和城乡收入差距与劳动力转移进行了实证研究。研究结果发现：农业技术进步、产业结构升级和城乡收入差距对南疆劳动力转移发挥着长效机制。城乡收入差距为劳动力转移提供了正向信号，农业技术进步为南疆劳动力转移形成了“推力”，南疆产业结构升级未能够为劳动力转移提供“拉力”，从而形成了劳动力转移的“倒逼”形式。。
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| 收稿时间： | 2016-12-27 |
Technological progress,industrial upgrading,income gap and labor transfer——An empirical study based on South Xinjiang |
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| Su Hui,Sun Yi.Technological progress,industrial upgrading,income gap and labor transfer——An empirical study based on South Xinjiang[J].Science Research Management,2006,40(12):182-191. |
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| Authors: | Su Hui Sun Yi |
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| Institution: | Teachers College,Shihezi University, Shihezi 832003, Xinjiang, China |
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| Abstract: | Rural labor transfer and employment is an important issue of China’s economic and social development. It is related to not only the situation of national economic and social development but also to the improvement of people’s living standards, for South Xinjiang, the transfer of rural labor is more related to Xinjiang’s social stability, long-term stability and national border security. Promoting effectively the transfer of rural surplus labor in poverty-stricken areas in South Xinjiang has become an important strategic measure for Xinjiang to get rid of poverty, achieve frontier harmony and stable development. Agricultural technology advancement, industrial structure upgrading and urban-rural income gap are important factors affecting the transfer of rural labor. Previous studies have reached a consensus on the relationship between agricultural technology advancement and labor transfer, which is a long-term positive balanced correlation between agricultural technology advancement and rural labor transfer. There are still major differences in the study of the impact on labor transfer from industrial structure upgrading and urban-rural income gap, China’s economic regional development is uneven, and the economic development of the eastern, central and western regions is quite different. The urban-rural dual structure in different regions shows different characteristics.South Xinjiang is an underdeveloped area where frontier minorities gather. With the support of the national policy of benefiting farmers in recent years, the promotion of agricultural science and technology in Xinjiang has achieved remarkable results, and the advancement of agricultural technology has promoted the development of agriculture in South Xinjiang. Modern agricultural technology investment has saved labor, and South Xinjiang, where labor is abundant and land resources are scarce, needs to transfer a large amount of surplus agricultural labor. According to the regulation of industrial structure evolution, economically underdeveloped regions with the economic development, the industry has evolved from the primary industry to the secondary and tertiary industries, and the labor force has also shifted from the primary industry to the secondary and tertiary industries. whether agricultural technology advancement and industrial structure upgrade have thrust and pull effect on labor transfer in South Xinjiang? Lewis’s theory of dual structure believes that the urban-rural income gap will cause the agricultural labor to shift from rural to urban areas. Will the labor force in South Xinjiang shift due to the income gap between urban and rural areas? Based on the above-mentioned problems, this paper attempts to explore the characteristics of labor transfer in underdeveloped regions and the substantial function of industrial structure upgrading, agricultural technology progress and urban-rural income gap on labor migration in South Xinjiang.This paper uses the VEC model, impulse response, variance decomposition and other methods to empirically study agricultural technology progress, industrial structure upgrading, urban-rural income gap and labor transfer in South Xinjiang from 1995 to 2015. The results show that: (1) From the interactive relationship between industrial structure upgrading and labor transfer in South Xinjiang, the industrial structure in South Xinjiang has been slow to upgrade, which has failed to provide a high capacity and absorption capacity for labor transfer. The transfer of labor force in South Xinjiang is mainly dominated by ethnicminorities,who are limited by the level of education, professional skills and national language ability. The quality of labor does not match the labor demand of industrial structure upgrading in South Xinjiang. (2) With the support of the national preferential agricultural policy in recent years, the agricultural technology advancement in South Xinjiang has released a large number of surplus labor in the primary industry, providing a large number of potential labor for the secondary and tertiary industries. For South Xinjiang where the urban-rural gap is large, the rural labor force is more inclined to move from rural areas to urban work through the comparison of vested income.In summary, agricultural technology advancement, industrial structure upgrading and urban-rural income gap play a long-term mechanism for labor migration in South Xinjiang. The urban-rural income gap provides a positive signal for labor transfer. The advancement of agricultural technology has created a “thrust” for labor migration in South Xinjiang. The upgrading of industrial structure in South Xinjiang has not provided a “pull” for labor transfer, thus forming a “inverted forced” for labor transfer. The labor transfer in South Xinjiang is not a project that can be completed in a short period of time. It needs to be viewed from a long-term perspective,it requires the local government to make a long-term plan,which including the transfer system, policy formulation and management for labor migration in South Xinjiang and based on the strategic height from stable.In this regard, this study proposes the following revelations and suggestions: (1) In order to solve the development bottleneck of irrational industrial structure and slow upgrading. South Xinjiang needs to vigorously develop emerging industrial industries, especially labor-intensive industries, and pay attention to the absorbing efficiency of secondary and tertiary industries to labor transfer, forming a reasonable and appropriate industrial structure, and realizing the pulling effect of industrial structure upgrading to labor transfer. It is further emphasized that the upgrading of industrial structure and the advancement of agricultural technology play an important role in the transfer of labor in South Xinjiang. (2) Meanwhile, improvement of labor human capital level and employment ability should be emphasized, especially the national language ability and reemployment ability of minority labor force, which makes the transfer levels of labor can be better coordinated with the upgrading of industrial structure. (3) we should regard objectively the income gap between urban and rural areas and we have to play a positive guiding role, strengthen the ability of labor transfer as a point, do a good job of government macro-control, and reduce external influence factors and institutional barriers in labor transfer. |
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