| 区域土地利用变化情景模拟设计与实证分析——基于多智能体系统(MAS)模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 符蓉,濮励杰,钱敏,朱明.区域土地利用变化情景模拟设计与实证分析——基于多智能体系统(MAS)模型[J].资源科学,2012,34(3):468-474. |
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| 作者姓名： | 符蓉 濮励杰 钱敏 朱明 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,南京,210093 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(编号：40871255)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文将多智能体系统模型在土地利用变化的应用范围扩展到中尺度上,以城市化快速发展和生态环境压力突出的江苏省宜兴市为研究区,主要考虑了政府、农户、城镇居民、工业企业业主这四类与土地利用变化相关的智能体类型,运用典型相关分析、Logistic回归分析等方法分析设计智能体的行为规则,综合权衡地块的转换概率。在土地利用情景设计中,智能体在自身行为之余,还进行智能体之间、智能体与环境层的交互,用来模拟人类对土地利用变化的决策行为。在Swarm2.2平台下实验得出：研究区土地利用时空演化的总体特征体现在耕地的减少,尤其是在原城镇中心边缘的耕地向城镇用地转化;农村居民点用地呈现集聚趋势;工矿用地的变化较为随机,没有明显的变化趋势;模型总体的模拟精度达到73.35%,较为符合现实的变化情况,证明了多智能体系统模型在引入人类决策因素状态下,研究和分析区域土地利用变化趋势的可行性。
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| 关 键 词： | 多智能体系统 土地利用变化 情景模拟 宜兴市 |
| 收稿时间： | 8/5/2011 12:00:00 AM |
Simulation and Empirical Analysis of Regional Land-use Change Based on Multi-Agent System (MAS) Model |
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| FU Rong,PU Lijie,QIAN Min and ZHU Ming.Simulation and Empirical Analysis of Regional Land-use Change Based on Multi-Agent System (MAS) Model[J].Resources Science,2012,34(3):468-474. |
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| Authors: | FU Rong PU Lijie QIAN Min and ZHU Ming |
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| Institution: | School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China;School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China;School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China;School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China |
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| Abstract: | As a typical model of artificial intelligence, MAS has become a hot research area within the field of land science. It is good at explaining complex process and has certain tolerance for uncertainty, fuzziness and inaccuracy. Besides, it can conduct dynamic simulation and phenomenon analysis on land-use change. This article expanded the application of MAS in land-use change to medium scale. With the city of Yixing, which is undergoing the dilemma of development and environment, as the research region, it mainly considered four agent types related to land-use change, namely the government, farmers, urban residents and owners of industrial undertakings. In the design of the scene of land-use change, this article focused on the following four major land-use patterns: the increase of the construction land; the conservation of arable land; land consolidation in rural regions and the intensive use of industrial land. After the preparation of data processing by the approach of geographic and spatial analysis in the platform of ArcGIS 9.3 and statistical analysis of socioeconomic data, this article pointed out the influence factors and driving forces of the land-use change in this city. In addition to canonical correlation analysis, logistic regression analysis and other analysis methods were used to analyze and design the behavior rule of the agent and comprehensively weigh the conversion probability of the land. Moreover, the interaction among agents and the interaction between agent and environment were also used to simulate human's action of decision-making on land-use change. The simulation was carried out in the platform of Swarm 2.2 and the results are as follows: 1) The reduction of arable land, especially the transformation from arable land to urban land at the edge of former urban centers, is dramatic and lasting. And this change would cause some social and environmental problems; 2) The concentration trend of rural residential land is obvious due to policies about rural land planning which are strongly emphasized in the design of the model; 3) The change of mining land is random. The overall accuracy of the model analog is 73.35%, which proves the feasibility of the study which applies MAS model into land-use change simulation. However, the simulation and prediction of rural residential land change are still very difficult and remain to be discussed and improved. |
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| Keywords: | Multi-agent system Land-use change Simulation The city of Yixing |
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