| 西安市人口－耕地－粮食系统的动态变化 |
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| 引用本文： | 张蓉珍,李珍.西安市人口－耕地－粮食系统的动态变化[J].西安文理学院学报,2009,12(2):106-109. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张蓉珍 李珍 |
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| 作者单位： | 西安文理学院,资源环境与旅游系,陕西,西安,710065
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| 摘 要： | 随着经济和社会的快速发展，西安市耕地面积和粮食生产发生了很大变化．文中从1978—2003年的耕地面积、粮食产量、粮食播种面积及人口数量等统计资料出发，分析了西安市粮食生产和耕地面积不同年份的动态变化，并简要阐明了其变化原因，同时也表明耕地资源数量和质量的变化已经影响了粮食生产，耕地资源的短缺已成为粮食安全生产的瓶颈．同时，采用单元指数回归分析与自然增长法，预测2010、2020年该市耕地资源、粮食生产能力及人口变化趋势，在此基础上提出稳定耕地面积和粮食生产的建议．
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| 关 键 词： | 西安市 粮食 耕地 人口 |
The Dynamic Change of the System of Population Cultivated Land and Grain in Xi' an City |
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| ZHANG Rong-zhen,LI Zhen.The Dynamic Change of the System of Population Cultivated Land and Grain in Xi' an City[J].Journal of Xi‘an University of Arts & Science:Natural Science Edition,2009,12(2):106-109. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Rong-zhen LI Zhen |
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| Institution: | (Department of Resource, Environment and Tourism ,Xi＇an University of Arts and Science, Xi＇an 710065 ,China) |
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| Abstract: | With the development of economy and society, the area of cultivated land and the grain production in Xi＇ an have changed greatly. Based on long-series statistical of cultivated area, grain yield, grain sown area and population quantity from 1978a to 2003a, this paper analyzes the difference of the year change of cultivated land area and grain productivity change and reveals its causes. At the same time, degradation of cultivated land due to the soil erosion and pollution tends to transform the high-yield land to the mid-yield or low-yield one, which will further restrict the food production and can be conceived as the bottleneck of food security in China. Meanwhile, the paper forecasts the changing trend of cultivated land resources, food production capacity and population in 2010 and 2020 by using unit index regression analysis and natural growth law, and based on which, puts forward suggestions to stabilize cultivated land area and food production capacity. |
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| Keywords: | Xi＇ an cultivated land grain population |
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