| 国家情报评估与决策的关系——基于多源流理论和认知心理学双重视角 |
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| 引用本文： | 王今,马海群,邹纯龙.国家情报评估与决策的关系——基于多源流理论和认知心理学双重视角[J].图书情报工作,2022(2):22-31. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王今 马海群 邹纯龙 |
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| 作者单位： | 哈尔滨理工大学经济与管理学院;黑龙江大学信息资源管理研究中心;黑龙江大学中国语言文学博士后流动站 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金重点项目“总体国家安全观下的国家情报工作制度创新研究”(项目编号:20ATQ004)研究成果之一。 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的 /意义]《国家情报评估》被认为是美国情报界最正规和最高水平的战略分析产品.对国家情报评估与决策的关系深入研究,可有助于我国完善科学决策体系,对国家治理体系现代化建设大有裨益.方法/过程]基于多源流理论和认知心理学,从建议采纳视角出发构建出国家情报评估与决策的影响机制模型,借助模糊集定性比较分析法(fsQCA)...
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| 关 键 词： | 国家情报评估 决策分析 多源流理论 认知心理学 fsQCA |
The Relationship Between National Intelligence Estimates and Decision-Making:Based on Dual Perspectives of Multiple-Stream Theory and Cognitive Psychology |
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| Wang Jin,Ma Haiqun,Zou Chunlong.The Relationship Between National Intelligence Estimates and Decision-Making:Based on Dual Perspectives of Multiple-Stream Theory and Cognitive Psychology[J].Library and Information Service,2022(2):22-31. |
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| Authors: | Wang Jin Ma Haiqun Zou Chunlong |
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| Institution: | (School of Economics and Management,Harbin University of Science and Technology,Harbin 150080;Research Center of Information Resources Management,Heilongjiang University,Harbin 150080;Chinese Language and Literature of Postdoctoral Research Station,Heilongjiang University,Harbin 150080) |
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| Abstract: | Purpose/significance]The National Intelligence Estimates is regarded as the most formal and the highest level of strategic analysis product in the U.S.intelligence community.An in-depth study of the relationship between national intelligence estimates and decision-making can help to improve the scientific decision-making system in China and greatly benefit the modernization of the national governance system.Method/process]Based on the multiple-stream theory and cognitive psychology,this paper constructed the influence mechanism model of national intelligence estimates and decision-making from the perspective of suggestion adoption,and analyzed the cases of Britain,the United States and other countries with the help of fsQCA method.Result/conclusion]The study shows that interest proposition and coordination are the only necessary conditions for the adoption of national intelligence evaluation results,and reveals three conditions combination paths of the relationship between national intelligence estimates and decision-making under emergency and non-emergency events. |
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| Keywords: | national intelligence estimates decision-making analysis multiple-stream theory cognitive psychology fsQCA |
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