| 投机性房地产泡沫预警指标的构建及实证分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴艳霞.投机性房地产泡沫预警指标的构建及实证分析[J].预测,2008,27(1):34-40. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴艳霞 |
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| 作者单位： | 西安理工大学,工商管理学院,陕西,西安,710054 |
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| 基金项目： | 陕西省科技厅软科学基金资助项目(2006KR103) |
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| 摘 要： | 恶性投机性房地产泡沫已经成为影响各国房地产行业健康发展乃至整个国民经济正常运转的最大潜在性威胁,因此专门针对房地产交易中投机性的大小建立预警体系从而对投机性房地产泡沫进行有效的监控就显得尤为重要。本文在界定投机性房地产泡沫的基础上,建立衡量房地产交易中投机性大小的指标体系,结合功效系数法构建了投机性房地产泡沫预警体系的理论框架,并结合我国实际,对投机性房地产泡沫的预警指标进行了应用。
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| 关 键 词： | 房地产行业 投机性房地产泡沫 功效系数 预警 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-5192（2008）01-0034-07 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-04-18 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年4月18日 |
Research on Construction of Index System for Speculative Real Estate Bubble Early-warning and Empirical Analysis |
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| WU Yan-xia.Research on Construction of Index System for Speculative Real Estate Bubble Early-warning and Empirical Analysis[J].Forecasting,2008,27(1):34-40. |
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| Authors: | WU Yan-xia |
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| Abstract: | Malignant speculative real estate bubble has been the biggest potential threat for the healthy development of real estate industry in all countries as well as the normal running of the whole national economy.Therefore,it is significant to construct a early-warning system in allusion to the speculation degree in real estate transaction to monitor and control the speculative real estate bubble.This thesis constructs an index system to measure the speculation degree in real estate transaction on the basis of defining the notion of speculative real estate bubble and composes a theoretic framework for speculative real estate bubble early-warning system combining with efficiency coefficient method and applies it in analysing the speculative real estate bubble early-warning in our country. |
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| Keywords: | real estate industry speculative real estate bubble efficiency coefficient method early-warning system |
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