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河南省入境旅游与经济增长关系的动态计量分析及实证研究
引用本文:汤世行.河南省入境旅游与经济增长关系的动态计量分析及实证研究[J].焦作大学学报,2013(1):48-50.
作者姓名:汤世行
作者单位:华东理工大学理学院
摘    要:为定量研究出河南省的入境旅游情况和河南地区GDP之间的关系,首先把相关的河南国际旅游外汇收入情况和地区GDP总值进行相应处理;其次,运用计量经济学中时间序列分析法、协整分析和Granger因果检验,对1982至2010年河南省GDP和河南省国际旅游外汇收入的关系进行动态计量分析。计量结果显示,河南省的地区GDP和入境旅游业之间存在较为稳定的协整关系,入境旅游收入增加1个点,可以带动区域GDP增加0.2525个百分点;河南省GDP的增长对入境旅游业的影响显著强于后者对前者的拉动作用。

关 键 词:入境旅游  协整检验  误差修正模型  Granger因果检验

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Inbound Tourism and the Economic Growth in Henan Province
TANG Shixing.An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Inbound Tourism and the Economic Growth in Henan Province[J].Journal of Jiaozuo University,2013(1):48-50.
Authors:TANG Shixing
Institution:TANG Shixing(East China University of Science and Technology,Shanghai 200237,China)
Abstract:In order to discuss the relationship between the inbound tourism and the economic growth in Henan province, the author analy- zes the relationship between the International Tourism Foreign Exchange revenue and the economic growth in Henan, via co - integration analysis and Granger causality test, based on the years of 1982--2010 data. The result shows that there exists a stable equilibrium rela- tionship between the inbound tourism development and the economic growth in the long term. With 1% increasing of the International Tourism Foreign Exchange revenue, GDP will increase 0. 2525%. Inbound tourism hasn' t promoted the economic growth of Henan e- nough.
Keywords:inbound tourism  co - integration test  error correct model  Granger causality
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