| 甘肃省冬季负积温资源的变化特征及预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨小利,辛吉武.甘肃省冬季负积温资源的变化特征及预测[J].资源科学,2007,29(4):114-120. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨小利 辛吉武 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点试验室,兰州,730020;甘肃省平凉市气象局,平凉,744000
2. 海南省气象局,海口,572000 |
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| 基金项目： | 科技部社会公益研究项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用甘肃省66个气象观测站1966年至2005年的日平均气温资料，统计计算了各站的冬季负积温，分析了其地理分布特征，并建立了空间分布模型。利用EOF、REOF、小波分析方法等，分析了甘肃省负积温的时空变化规律。结果表明，甘肃省冬季负积温在空间尺度上可分为五个气候区；近40年来，负积温总体呈下降趋势，1985年是负积温变化的转折点；1990年代负积温平均值是各个年代中最小的，不同气候区在不同阶段负积温变化特征及变化周期有所不同；为进一步了解负积温的未来变化趋势，采用均生函数方法建立了甘肃省不同气候区冬季负积温的预测模型，根据各气候区的预报模型可得到负积温预测值，用负积温拟合1966年～2000年的冷暖冬状况，拟合率为68%～95%，准确率为63%～94%，试预测2001年～2005年的冷暖冬状况，准确率在60%～100%之间。对各代表站2006年～2010年的冬季负积温趋势进行延伸预报，结果表明，2006年～2010年的5年期间，各气候区冬季负积温总体上低于历史平均值25%～35%，年际间的冬季冷暖变化不太明显，多数年份仍为暖冬。
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| 关 键 词： | 甘肃省 冬季 负积温 时空特征 分析 预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-7588（2007）04-0114-07 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-10-112006-12-06 |
The Change Characteristics and Trend Prediction of Negative Accumulated Temperature in Gansu Province |
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| YANG Xiao-li and XIN Ji-wu.The Change Characteristics and Trend Prediction of Negative Accumulated Temperature in Gansu Province[J].Resources Science,2007,29(4):114-120. |
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| Authors: | YANG Xiao-li and XIN Ji-wu |
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| Institution: | 1. Laazhou Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration ; Gansu Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster, Lanzhou 730020, China ; 2. Pingliang Meteorological Bureau, Pingliang 744000, China; 3. Meteorogical Bureau of Hainan Province, Haikou 572000, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the average daily air temperature data from 80 observatories in Gansu province during the periods of 1966 to 2005,the winter negative accumulated temperature was calculated,the characteristics of its geographical distribution was analyzed,and a spatial model used to estimate the value of small grid where there is no meteorological station was established.It is found that the winter negative accumulated temperature in Gansu is affected by latitude and altitude mainly,and the values vary greatly from northwest to southeast.Using EOF,REOF,and wavelet analysis methods,the abnormal and evolution characteristics of winter negative accumulated temperature in Gansu were analyzed.The results show that the abnormal area can be divided into 5 natural parts,i.e.Hexi corridor,Gannan pasture,Longdong loess plateau,South and East Gansu and Longzhong loess plateau.In the recent 40 years,the winter negative accumulated temperature in Gansu province has been decreasing obviously,and the year 1985 can be regarded as the turning point before which the winter negative accumulated temperature was higher and winters were colder.The 1990s was the decade in which the absolute value of negative accumulated temperature was the smallest.Although all parts of the province have presented the trend of decrease,each part has its own variation characteristics during different periods.Hexi,Longdong and Longzhong started decreasing trend in late 1960s to 1970s,while Gannan started its decreasing trend in late 1950s,and the South and East Gansu started in the middle of 1970s.There is an obvious spatial difference of variation level in Gansu.Each parts has the maximal decreasing level in the 1960s and the 1970s,except for Longnan,the transition belt from semi-tropical climate to temperature zone. The results of wavelet analysis shown that winter negative accumulated temperature presented a periodic fluctuation in different parts of the province.The variation of winter negative accumulated temperature experienced 4 periods at the longer time scale.At last,a forecasting model of negative accumulated temperature for Gansu province was formulated.The predicted values can be computed by using the forecasting models for different parts based on which the situations of cooling and warming in winter from 1966 to 2000 were fitted.The fit accuracy is between 63 percent and 94 percent,and the average accuracy is 79.5 per cent.Using the predicted value to estimate the situations of cooling and warming in winter from 2000 to 2005,the accuracy is between 60 percent and 100 percent,and the average accuracy is 80 per cent.The situations of cooling and warming of winter from 2006 to 2010 were also predicted,which showed that the coming 5 years will be green winter. |
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| Keywords: | Change characteristics Winter negative accumulated temperature Trend predication Gansu |
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