| 城市土地扩张与经济发展的Kuznets曲线效应分析——以江苏省13个地级市为例简 |
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| 引用本文： | 盛业旭,刘琼,欧名豪,佴伶俐.城市土地扩张与经济发展的Kuznets曲线效应分析——以江苏省13个地级市为例简[J].资源科学,2014,36(2):296-302. |
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| 作者姓名： | 盛业旭 刘琼 欧名豪 佴伶俐 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金青年项目：“基于利益相关者的土地利用规划与城市规划冲突治理研究”（编号：71103090）；教育部哲学社会科学重大项目：“我国建设用地总量控制与差别化管理政策研究”（编号：11JZD031）。 |
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| 摘 要： | 在借鉴耕地非农化与经济发展Kuznets曲线效应的基础上，提出城市土地扩张与经济发展的Kuznets曲线效应假说，并以江苏省13个地级市为例进行验证。研究结果表明：①城市土地扩张与经济发展的Kuznets曲线效应不仅在理论上具有可能性，在江苏省13个地级市以及苏南5市、苏北5市的实践中也得到了验证；②苏南5市城市土地规模的稳定主要得益于经济发展的结构效应，符合其现阶段的社会经济发展特征，而苏北5市城市土地扩张的放缓可能与消除效应中的政策约束有关，或许不利于其当前经济的进一步发展；③受区位条件跳跃式优化的影响，苏中3市城市土地扩张与经济发展之间并未出现Kuznets曲线效应，城市土地仍处于快速扩张的阶段。对此，本文建议江苏省三大区域应实行“有保有压，保压结合”的差别化管控政策：苏南5市应以压为主，严格限制城市用地扩张，倒逼经济结构调整；苏北5市应压中有保，在保证耕地保有量的前提下允许城市土地适度扩张，以支撑未来一段时间内的经济发展；苏中3市尤其是南通市应保中有压，在给予较大的城市土地新增空间的同时，强化城市土地集约利用，落实耕地保有目标。
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| 关 键 词： | 城市土地扩张 经济发展 Kuznets曲线 计量经济分析 江苏 |
The Kuznets Curve Relationship Between Urban Land Expansion and Economic Development Across 13 Municipalities in Jiangsu |
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| SHENG Yexu,LIU Qiong,OU Minghao and ER Lingli.The Kuznets Curve Relationship Between Urban Land Expansion and Economic Development Across 13 Municipalities in Jiangsu[J].Resources Science,2014,36(2):296-302. |
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| Authors: | SHENG Yexu LIU Qiong OU Minghao and ER Lingli |
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| Institution: | College of Land Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China;College of Land Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China;College of Land Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China;Jiangsu Institute of Land Surveying and Planning, Nanjing 210024, China |
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| Abstract: | This paper puts forward the hypothesis of a Kuznets curve relationship between urban land expansion (cultivated land conversion) and economic development for 13 municipalities in Jiangsu province. We found that the Kuznets curve relationship between urban land expansion and economic development is not only feasible in theory, but also verified in 13 municipalities in Jiangsu, including five municipalities in southern Jiangsu and five municipalities in northern Jiangsu. The urban land scale stability in southern Jiangsu is due to the structure effect of economic development which complies with its economic development stage. The urban land expansion decrease in northern Jiangsu is probably owing to policy constraints from cancellation effects, and may not be conducive to its future economic development. Influenced by the jumping optimization of the location condition, there is no Kuznets curve relationship between urban land expansion and economic development in three municipalities in central Jiangsu where the urban land scale is expanding rapidly. Differentiated regulation policies for three areas are needed to control urban land scale. Five municipalities in southern Jiangsu should restrain urban land expansion in order to force the readjustment of economic structure. Five municipalities in northern Jiangsu should allow moderate expansion of urban land below the premise of ensuring cultivated land quantity, in order to support economic development in the future. Three municipalities in central Jiangsu, especially Nantong city, should be given large increases in urban land while reinforcing the intensive use of urban land and implementing cultivated land protection. |
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| Keywords: | urban land expansion economic development Kuznets curve econometric analysis Jiangsu Province |
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