| 亚洲九国入境中国旅游与进出口贸易互动关系研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 石张宇,周葆华,沈惊宏,朱磊.亚洲九国入境中国旅游与进出口贸易互动关系研究[J].资源科学,2015,37(9):1871-1879. |
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| 作者姓名： | 石张宇 周葆华 沈惊宏 朱磊 |
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| 作者单位： | 安庆师范大学资源环境学院,安庆 246011 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家旅游局旅游业青年专家培养计划资助项目（TYETP201428）;安徽省高校人文社会科学研究重点项目（SK2014A295）;安徽省高校人文社会科学研究一般项目（AQSK2014B026） |
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| 摘 要： | 选取1997-2012年亚洲9国入境中国旅游与进出口贸易数据,运用协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验和回归分析法,研究了入境旅游与进出口贸易两者间的互动关系。结果发现：①亚洲9国入境中国旅游与进口贸易、出口贸易之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;②格兰杰因果关系检验显示,不同国家入境旅游与贸易间的互动关系呈现出较大差异性,日本、韩国、马来西亚和印度4国属旅游推动贸易型,蒙古、印尼、新加坡和泰国4国属贸易促进旅游型,菲律宾属旅游与贸易混合型;③各国入境中国旅游与进口、出口贸易间的互动作用强度也存在明显差异。研究结论对中国入境旅游产业发展和国际贸易政策制定具有一定参考价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 入境旅游 进出口贸易 互动模式 格兰杰因果检验 回归分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014-11-17 |
| 修稿时间： | 2015-06-15 |
Interactions between inbound tourism from nine Asian countries and import and export trade |
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| SHI Zhangyu,ZHOU Baohua,SHEN Jinghong,ZHU Lei.Interactions between inbound tourism from nine Asian countries and import and export trade[J].Resources Science,2015,37(9):1871-1879. |
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| Authors: | SHI Zhangyu ZHOU Baohua SHEN Jinghong ZHU Lei |
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| Institution: | School of Resource and Environment,Anqing Normal University,Anqing 246011,China |
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| Abstract: | International tourism and international trade are two mutual connections and influence systems. International tourism can push international trade;international trade also promotes international tourism and these two are often synchronously developing in many countries. Based on relative data from 1997 to 2012 for inbound tourism from nine Asian countries and import and export trade between China and the same nine countries,we analyzed the interactive relationship between inbound tourism and two kinds of trade using the co-integration test,Granger causality test and regression analysis. We found that inbound tourism to China and two kinds of trade with China form a long term and stable equilibrium relationship. The results of Granger causality test indicate that interaction relationships of different countries’ inbound tourism and import and export trade are different due to high diversity in trade scale and structure,the level of tourism industry development and economic development. The states of Japan,South Korea,Malaysia and India belong to tourism-promoting trade; the states of Mongolia,Indonesia,Singapore and Thailand belong to trade stimulating tourism; the Philippines is a tourism and trade mixed type. Regression analysis shows that interaction strength between inbound tourism to China and import and export trade with China have obvious differences. The promoting role of Malaysia’s inbound tourism to import trade is the largest;and the pushing role of Indonesia’s import trade to inbound tourism is the largest. Conclusions show the different characteristics and interactive relationships between inbound tourism and import and export trade,and provide referential suggestions for developing inbound tourism industry and formulating international trade policy. |
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| Keywords: | inbound tourism import and export trade interaction model granger causality test regression analysis |
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