| 中国耕地资源与粮食供需未来变化趋势预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈利顶.中国耕地资源与粮食供需未来变化趋势预测研究[J].资源科学,1995,17(4):1-7. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈利顶 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院生态环境研究中心 |
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| 摘 要： | 本人分析了中国耕地资源、人口、粮食的历史变化特点和规律，利用灰色预测模型预测了中国未来几十年耕地资源的变化趋势，并结合中国人后的增长和粮食的需求，阐述了中国耕地资源未来面临的危机。
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| 关 键 词： | 中国耕地资源 粮食总产量 人均粮食占有量 灰色预测模型 |
FORECAST ON THE FUTURE TREND OF CULTIVATED LAND RESOURCES, GRAIN SUPPLY ANO DEMANDS IN CHINA |
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| Chen Liding.FORECAST ON THE FUTURE TREND OF CULTIVATED LAND RESOURCES, GRAIN SUPPLY ANO DEMANDS IN CHINA[J].Resources Science,1995,17(4):1-7. |
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| Authors: | Chen Liding |
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| Abstract: | his paper presents forecast on the future trend of the cultivated land changes in China by using the grey forecast model, based on analyses of the characteristic changes of cultivated land, population and total grain yield in the past.Crisis of cultivated land resources confronting China was indicated through studying the relationship between growth and the grain supply/demand. |
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| Keywords: | ultivated land resources Total grain yield Per capita grain yield Grey forecast model |
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