| ARIMA模型在我国原煤生产预测中的应用分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 冯新舟,任伯虎,齐晶晶.ARIMA模型在我国原煤生产预测中的应用分析[J].未来与发展,2009,30(7):62-64. |
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| 作者姓名： | 冯新舟 任伯虎 齐晶晶 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南开大学,天津,300071
2. 河北唐山高新技术产业园区管理委员会,河北,唐山,063020 |
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| 摘 要： | 煤炭作为基础能源产品，对于我国国民经济持续健康发展具有非常重要的战略意义。通过对1949-2008年间我国原煤年产量的数据进行统计分析．发现我国年度原煤产量序列是非平稳时间序列。采用ARIMA模型进行预测分析可以达到良好的效果。建立我国原煤年产量的ARIMA（1，1，3）模型，模拟效果较好，预测误差较小，可用来预测未来我国的原煤产量。
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| 关 键 词： | ARIMA模型 原煤生产 预测 |
Study on the Application of ARIMA Model in Forecasting China's Coal production |
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| FENG Xin-zhou,REN Bo-hu,QI jing-jing.Study on the Application of ARIMA Model in Forecasting China's Coal production[J].Future and Development,2009,30(7):62-64. |
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| Authors: | FENG Xin-zhou REN Bo-hu QI jing-jing |
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| Institution: | FENG Xin-zhou,REN Bo-hu,QI jing-jing (l.Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China;2.Tangshan High-tech Industry Park Management Committee in Hebei,Tangshan Hebei 063020,China) |
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| Abstract: | As one of the basic energy sources, coal is very important to the sustaining and healthy development of China＇s economy. By analysing statistically the data of the output of our country＇s coal in 1949-2008, it isfound that annual coal output in China is not a balanced time series. Therefore, it is suitable to use ARIMA model to forecast and analyse, and the effect is exact.It is concluded that ARIMA（1,1,3）is suitable for annual output of China＇s coal. Its simulation effect is exact, and forecasting error is very small. It can be used to forecast coal output in China. |
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| Keywords: | ARIMA model coal production forecast |
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