| 基于偏离份额法的河北省能源终端消费结构研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴江,孙彤,石磊.基于偏离份额法的河北省能源终端消费结构研究[J].资源科学,2013,35(1):109-114. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴江 孙彤 石磊 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国人民大学环境学院,北京,100872 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社科基金重大招标项目(编号:09&ZD052);国家社科基金青年项目(编号:12CGL069)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 河北省是传统能源消耗大省,未来一段时期面临较大的能源压力.本文选取2005年-2009年国家和河北省能源数据,采用偏离份额法对河北省能源终端消费结构进行分析,发现该时期内河北省能源消费增速略低于全国平均增速,工业能源消费对河北能源消费影响最大.在未来一段时期内,河北省能源终端消费出现大规模增长的可能性较低,其中农林牧渔业能源消费增长可能性最大,生活消费领域能源消费增长可能性最小.同时,高耗能行业在河北省能源终端消费结构中并不占据主导地位,因此能源终端消费结构不是该时期导致河北省能源紧张的主要原因.但随着河北工业经济在调整优化中不断实现跨越式发展,高耗能行业所占比重上升压力凸现,较为均衡的能源结构所带来的微弱优势也可能被抵消.针对上述问题,提出以下建议:制定能源规划,利用法律约束能源无序开发；引进先进技术,构筑能源消费缓冲空间；利用价格倒逼能源消费结构优化；创新多渠道投融资机制.
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| 关 键 词： | 偏离份额法 终端能源消费结构 河北省 |
| 收稿时间： | 6/8/2012 12:00:00 AM |
Energy End-Use Structure of Hebei Province Obtained Using Shift-Share Methods |
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| WU Jiang,SU Tong and SHI Lei.Energy End-Use Structure of Hebei Province Obtained Using Shift-Share Methods[J].Resources Science,2013,35(1):109-114. |
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| Authors: | WU Jiang SU Tong and SHI Lei |
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| Institution: | School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China;School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China;School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China |
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| Abstract: | Energy is one of the most important factors for human survival and development. As China's urbanization, economy and energy requirements continue to grow, pressure will increase on resources and the environment. It is therefore necessary to address the sustainable development of energy for Hebei province, one of the largest energy-consuming provinces in China. Based on energy data for China and Hebei from 2005 to 2009, the shift-share method was used to analyze energy end-use structure for the province. We found that energy consumption growth for Hebei was a little lower than the national average. Industrial energy consumption is the most important factor influencing energy use in Hebei. In the future, the overall energy consumption of Hebei province will not increase greatly. Among all industries, the energy consumption of agriculture, forestry, husbandry and fishery are the most likely to grow, and the energy use of life consumption is the least likely to grow. The high energy-consuming industries do not have a monopoly on the overall energy end-consumption structure in Hebei, so energy terminal consumption structure was not the main factor leading to the energy crisis in Hebei during the period we studied. We suggest that energy planning be developed as soon as possible, using legal means to restrain the disorderly development of energy and reducing the waste of energy. Advanced technology to reduce current energy usage and build a buffer for future energy consumption should be introduced. The influence of energy price mechanism on energy structure is one of the most important economic factors and results in the inefficient consumption of energy, we must leverage prices to force energy consumption structure optimization. Last, multi-channel investment and financing mechanisms to solve funds shortages should be innovated. These suggestions are given to improve energy consumption structure and achieve sustainable development in Hebei. |
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| Keywords: | Shift-share method Structure of energy end-use Sustainable development Hebei Province |
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