| Improved grey-based approach for power demand forecasting |
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| 作者姓名： | LIN Jia-mu LIU Dan |
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| 作者单位： | LIU Dan |
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| 摘 要： | 1 Introduction a Grey theory, originally developed by Deng 1], is a truly multidisciplinary and generic theory that deals with systems of deficient information. In the field of information research, light and deep colors respectively represent informatio…
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色系统 马尔可夫链 台湾省 能源需求 预测 残差 |
| 文章编号： | 1671-8224（2006）040229-06 |
Improved grey-based approach for power demand forecasting |
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| LIN Jia-mu LIU Dan.Improved grey-based approach for power demand forecasting[J].Journal of Chongqing University,2006,5(4):229-234. |
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| Authors: | LIN Jia-mu LIU Dan Economy Industry and Business Management College Chongqing University Chongqing PR China |
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| Abstract: | Grey theory is a multidisciplinary and generic theory to cope with systems of poor or deficient information. We proposed in this paper an improved grey method (GM) to overcome the disadvantages of the general GM(1,1). In the improved GM(1,1), a new background value formula is deduced and Markov-chain sign estimation is imbedded into the residual modification model. We tested the efficiency and accuracy of our model by applying it to the power demand forecasting in Taiwan. Experimental results demonstrate the new method has obviously a higher prediction accuracy than the general model. |
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| Keywords: | grey theory improved GM(1 1) Markov-chain power demand forecasting |
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