| 中国低碳经济影响因素分析与情景预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘朝,赵涛.中国低碳经济影响因素分析与情景预测[J].资源科学,2011,33(5):844-850. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘朝 赵涛 |
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| 作者单位： | 天津大学管理与经济学部,天津,300072 |
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| 基金项目： | 天津大学自主创新基金（编号：60304002）。 |
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| 摘 要： | 中国发展低碳经济面临诸多挑战与困难,涉及产业结构调整、新能源技术开发与利用、居民低碳意识提高等众多领域。本文系统地阐述了阻碍中国低碳经济发展的15个影响因素,运用解释结构模型理顺各影响因素之间的层级关系,进而找出阻碍中国低碳经济发展的关键因素--经济粗放式发展、缺乏完善的低碳政策框架、居民低碳意识淡薄和缺乏低碳专业人才。根据关键阻碍因素,设定中国低碳经济发展3种情景--基础情景、低碳情景和受挫情景,定量模拟中国2050年低碳经济发展水平。预测结果表明未来的能源需求和碳排放量极有可能是在一个较大的范围内波动,低碳发展对我国能源与环境建设具有多重正效应,低碳情景比基础情景在能源总需求方面下降了8.5亿t标准煤,CO2排放量减少了6亿t碳当量,煤炭占一次能源需求量下降到34%。
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| 关 键 词： | 低碳经济 ISM模型 关键阻碍因素 情景分析 LEAP 中国 |
Influencing Factors and Scenario Forecasting of China's Low-Carbon Economy |
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| LIU Zhao and ZHAO Tao.Influencing Factors and Scenario Forecasting of China's Low-Carbon Economy[J].Resources Science,2011,33(5):844-850. |
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| Authors: | LIU Zhao and ZHAO Tao |
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| Institution: | School of Management and Economic, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China;School of Management and Economic, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China |
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| Abstract: | Low-carbon development in China is being faced with various challenges and difficulties,including industrial reconstructuring,utilization of new energy technologies,and residents' weak awareness of low-carbon,etc.It is meaningful to unravel the hierarchical relationship among each influencing factor.In the present study,the authors systematically explored 15 barriers that influence the development of low-carbon economy in China.The interactions between these barriers were also illustrated by an interpretive... |
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| Keywords: | Low-carbon economy ISM model Barrier factors Scenario Analysis LEAP |
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