| 基于灰色模糊理论的“十二五”期间河南省物价趋势预测及影响因素研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 张端端.基于灰色模糊理论的“十二五”期间河南省物价趋势预测及影响因素研究[J].常熟理工学院学报,2012(7):62-66. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张端端 |
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| 作者单位： | 济源职业技术学院 人文管理系,河南 济源 459000 |
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| 基金项目： | 河南省教育厅2011年度人文社会科学研究项目“中原经济区视角下高职大学生失学率预警研究”(2011-GH-018) |
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| 摘 要： | 以灰色理论为基础,通过创建模型预测到河南省“十二五”期间居民消费价格指数的变动趋势表现为2011-2015年居民消费价格指数有升有降,总体呈现平稳上升状态.同时,运用Eviews6.0软件对影响CPI变动的原因进行了研究,结果表明,作为居民消费价格指数重要组成部分的食品、居住类商品价格的上涨是影响居民消费价格指数的主要因素,翘尾因素和虚拟财产是次要因素.
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色模糊理论 十二五 物价 预测 影响因素 |
The Prediction and the Research on the Price Tendency and Influencing Factors in Henan Province during the Twelfth Five-year Plan Based on Grey Fuzzy Theory |
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| ZHANG Duan-duan.The Prediction and the Research on the Price Tendency and Influencing Factors in Henan Province during the Twelfth Five-year Plan Based on Grey Fuzzy Theory[J].Journal of Changshu Institute of Technology,2012(7):62-66. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Duan-duan |
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| Institution: | ZHANG Duan-duan (Jiyuan Vocational and Technological College, Jiyuan 459000, China ) |
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| Abstract: | Commodity price is of essential importance in relating to national welfare and the people’s livelihood. In the past 2010, the state has considered price regulation as an important task to overtake. As the core of " Central China Economic District " , Henan province has played a very important role in stabilizing the prices. Based on grey fuzzy theory and by means of creating the model, this paper predicts that the movement of consumer price index in Henan Province during the twelfth five-year plan will keep a steady increase in the overall state. Additionally, this paper indicates that the rising price of food , housing commodity, which is an important part of consumer price index, is the key factor, and that carryover effect and virtual property are secondary factors. Because of the macro-control of our state and government, the consumer price index in Henan province presents a steady and modest increase. |
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| Keywords: | grey fuzzy theory the twelfth five-year plan price prediction influencing factors |
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