| 我国体育产业市场规模的系统动力学模型及其仿真实证研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 傅钢强,杨明.我国体育产业市场规模的系统动力学模型及其仿真实证研究[J].南京体育学院学报(社会科学版),2016(4):61-67. |
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| 作者姓名： | 傅钢强 杨明 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 浙江农林大学 体育军训部，浙江 临安311300; 杭州师范大学 体育与健康学院，浙江 杭州310036;2. 杭州师范大学 体育与健康学院,浙江 杭州,310036 |
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| 摘 要： | 国务院提出力争到2025年体育产业产值总规模达到5万亿元后，体育产业市场规模成为大家关注的焦点。本研究基于中国经济发展水平、居民收入和消费水平及体育系统规模水平三个维度的数据，从体育市场供给、体育市场需求、体育产业投资规模和体育人口数量四个子系统入手，运用系统动力学仿真模型对全国体育产业的市场规模进行了动态仿真模拟和实证预测。结果表明：到2020年我国体育产业产值规模达到28681亿元，与国家体育总局提出的3万亿目标还稍有差距；而到2025年远远超出了国务院提出的5万亿元的目标，达到60435亿元。自此，我国体育产业市场规模进入快速增长的时期，同时呈现出阶段性变化的特点。本研究最后提出了相应的对策建议，旨在为我国体育产业的全面健康发展奠定坚实的理论基础。
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| 关 键 词： | 体育产业 市场规模 仿真 预测 模型 系统动力学 |
A Prediction of Sports Industry Market Size in China Based on the System Dynamics Simulation Model |
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| Abstract: | Even since the State Council stated that the gross output by sports industry should reach 5 trillion yuan by 2025,the scale of sports industry market has become a hot topic of discussion. This study,based on the data from three di-mensions:the level of China’s economic development,residents’ income and the consumption level,looked at the four sub-systems of the supply of the market,the demand of the market,the scale of sports industry investment and sports popula-tion . It carried out a dynamic simulation and empirical prediction of the scale of national sports industry market by applying the system dynamic simulation model. By 2020 China’s sports industry output value would reach 2. 8681 trillion yuan, slightly below the 3 trillion yuan target set by the State Sports General Administration. However,the output value would work out at 6. 0435 trillion yuan by 2025 and far exceed the goal proposed by the State Council. After that,the scale of China’s sports industry market will have entered a period of rapid growth,and at the same time,it will be characterized by phasic variation. Corresponding suggestions are proposed. |
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| Keywords: | sports industry market size simulation forecast model system dynamics |
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