| 基于熵权Markov链的商品零售价格指数预测方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 熊国强,潘泉,张洪才.基于熵权Markov链的商品零售价格指数预测方法[J].软科学,2008,22(4):13-16. |
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| 作者姓名： | 熊国强 潘泉 张洪才 |
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| 作者单位： | 西北工业大学自动化学院,西安,710072 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金
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陕西省教育厅资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对商品零售价格指数的变化特点,提出了一种基于熵权的Markov链预测分析方法。首先用概率均分法对样本数据进行状态等级划分,其次对历史年份商品零售价格指数的状态进行统计,建立不同步长的Markov链状态转移概率矩阵,然后用熵权Markov链分析模型对商品零售价格指数进行预测。最后,通过一个实例说明了该方法的有效性。
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| 关 键 词： | 商品零售价格指数 Markov链 熵权 预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-8409(2008)04-0013-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年10月25 |
A Research of Markov Chain Method Based on Entropy Right to Forecast Commodities' Retail Price Index |
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| XIONG Guo-qiang,PAN Quan,ZHANG Hong-cai.A Research of Markov Chain Method Based on Entropy Right to Forecast Commodities'''' Retail Price Index[J].Soft Science,2008,22(4):13-16. |
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| Authors: | XIONG Guo-qiang PAN Quan ZHANG Hong-cai |
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| Abstract: | Aimed at the feature of commodities' retail price index, this paper puts forward a forecasting Markov chain method based on entropy right. Firstly, it divides the sample data into different state by probability average method; secondly, it collects the state and establishes the transition probability matrix of different length of strides; thirdly, it forecasts commodities' retail price index by Markov chain model; finally, it proves the validity of this method by an empirical case. |
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| Keywords: | commodities' retail price index Markov chain entropy right forecast |
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