| 中国人口增长预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 董永权.中国人口增长预测[J].唐山师范学院学报,2009,31(2):46-48. |
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| 作者姓名： | 董永权 |
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| 作者单位： | 唐山师范学院,数学与信息科学系,河北,唐山,063000 |
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| 摘 要： | 建立中国人口增长的Logistic阻滞增长模型，预测了未来28年我国的人口数量。进一步，对Logistic方程进行解析，得到了人口增长的高峰期。通过分析人口出生率变化趋势和男女性别比变化趋势，预测了我国人口实现零增长的时间。
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| 关 键 词： | 人口净增长率 出生率 Logistic方程 最小二乘法 |
The Prediction of Population Increasing of China |
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| DONG Yong-quan.The Prediction of Population Increasing of China[J].Journal of Tangshan Teachers College,2009,31(2):46-48. |
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| Authors: | DONG Yong-quan |
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| Institution: | DONG Yong-quan (Department of Mathematics and Information Science, Tangshan Teachers College, Tangshan Hebei 063000, China) |
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| Abstract: | The Logistic hampering model of population increasing of China was constituted to predict the population amount of 28 years in the future. The height year of population increasing was found by analysing the Logistic equationget. By discussing the change tendency of birth rate and sex ratio, the zero increasing year of our population has been predicted. |
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| Keywords: | population net increasing rate birth rate Logistic equation least square method |
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