| 基于蚁群算法的组合预测方法在我国R＆D经费投入中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 肖智,邹刚.基于蚁群算法的组合预测方法在我国R＆D经费投入中的应用[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2006,27(9):19-21,27. |
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| 作者姓名： | 肖智 邹刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,重庆400035 |
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| 摘 要： | 组合预测能够充分利用已知信息，从而提高预测精度。在组合预测中，权重的确定非常重要。提出一种新的求解组合预测加权平均系数的方法。依据最小二乘准则构造目标函数，并将改进的蚁群算法用于求解组合预测中的加权平均系数。将该方法运用到我国R＆D经费投入预测中，从而证明了该方法的可行性和有效性。
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| 关 键 词： | 组合预测 蚁群算法 R＆D经费 连续优化 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-0241（2006）09-0019-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-04-17 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-04-17 |
The Application of Combining Forecasting Based on Ant Colony Algorithm to R&D Funds in China |
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| XIAO Zhi,ZOU Gang.The Application of Combining Forecasting Based on Ant Colony Algorithm to R&D Funds in China[J].Science of Science and Management of S.& T.,2006,27(9):19-21,27. |
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| Authors: | XIAO Zhi ZOU Gang |
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| Institution: | College of Economics Business Administration, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400035, China |
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| Abstract: | Combining forecasting can improve the precision of forecasting by making use of information that we had known. In this paper, a new way for solving weighted average coefficients in combining forecasting was proposed. we formulated objective function according to least squares criterion, solved weighted average coefficients by improved ant colony algorithm. And we tested and verified the feasibility and effectiveness by applying to R&D funds in China. |
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| Keywords: | combining forecasting ant colony algorithm R&D funds continuous optimization |
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