| 我国居民储蓄与GDP增长相关性分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 方世建,付文林.我国居民储蓄与GDP增长相关性分析[J].预测,2001,20(5):29-32. |
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| 作者姓名： | 方世建 付文林 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学技术大学 商学院，安徽 合肥 230026 |
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| 摘 要： | 许多研究认为东亚经济增长奇迹的关键原因是这些国家的高储蓄。本文在对1978年以来中国经济运行的有关数据进行统计分析时发现，在中国的居民储蓄率与GDP增长率之间并不存在正相关关系，事实上，与GDP同向变动的应是居民储蓄额，并且我们发现要保证储蓄与经济增长之间的正相关关系也需要满足一些特殊条件：居民收入必须不断增长、储蓄必须要能顺利地转化为投资。因此本文提出在政策上应谨慎看待我国居民储蓄与GDP增长之间的正相关关系。
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| 关 键 词： | 居民储蓄 经济增长 投资额 相关性 GDP 中国 国民生产总值 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-5192(2001)05-0029-04 |
The Correlative Analysis of China's Resident Saving and Economic Growth |
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| FANG Shi jian,FU Wen lin.The Correlative Analysis of China''''s Resident Saving and Economic Growth[J].Forecasting,2001,20(5):29-32. |
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| Authors: | FANG Shi jian FU Wen lin |
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| Abstract: | Some researches take the high rate of domestic saving as the key reason for east Asia's fast economic growth. Through analyzing china's economic data from 1978, this paper finds that there is no positive correlation between the resident saving rate and the GDP growth rate. In fact it is the resident saving that corresponds to the variety of GDP growth. This paper holds that it must be special condition to maintain the positive correlation between the saving and GDP growth. That means the resident incoming must keep continual increase and the saving must be successfully transformed into investment. Hence this paper proposes that we should be cautious in policy to treat the positive correlation between the resident saving and the GDP growth. |
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| Keywords: | resident savings GDP growth investment correlativity |
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