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| 基于技术系数矩阵的灾害影响评估及政策启示 | |
| 引用本文： | 吴先华,聂国欣,郭际,陈云峰.基于技术系数矩阵的灾害影响评估及政策启示[J].科学学研究,2012,30(11). |
| 作者姓名： | 吴先华 聂国欣 郭际 陈云峰 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 南京信息工程大学中国制造业发展研究院,江苏南京,210044 2. 华北电力大学环境科学与工程学院,河北保定,071003 3. 南京信息工程大学经济管理学院,江苏南京,210044 4. 中国气象出版社,北京,100081 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目，国家社科基金资助项目，国家软科学研究计划 |
| 摘 要： | 近年来,自然灾害频发,促使人们更加关注灾害造成的社会经济损失。以往的研究多采用传统的技术经济方法评估灾害对某一产业或某一地区带来的直接损失,对评估灾害综合损失(包含间接损失)的研究较少。在列昂捷夫技术系数矩阵的基础上,借鉴了Haimes、Santos等人的方法,充分考虑产业经济系统各子系统之间存在的技术经济关联性,提出了灾害影响的综合评估模型。以我国2008年度的气象灾害为例,分别计算了静、动态情形下的灾害综合影响值,筛选了对灾害较为敏感的产业,提出了相应的政策建议,如根据灾害的关联影响构建新的灾后捐赠机制,灾后应加快受损方的设备、工艺和技术等的更新速度,借助技术进步减少灾害的综合损失等。 |
| 关 键 词： | 技术系数矩阵 灾害 产业经济系统 政策启示 |
Policy revelations and impact assessment of disasters based on technical coefficients matrix |
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| Abstract: | In recent years,severe disasters occurred frequently,which prompts people to pay more attention to the losses of industrial economy system caused by disasters.Previous studies were mostly limited to assessing the direct losses of a particular industry or a region caused by disasters so that there are less studies on comprehensive losses of disaster damage(including indirect losses).Based on Wassily Leontief's technical coefficients matrix,this paper takes full account of the intrinsic relevance between the various subsystems in the industrial economy system and expands the thoughts of Haimes and Santos from the point of decreased industry output due to disasters,finally it proposed static and dynamic input-output integrated assessment models.Take the case of the meteorological disasters in china in 2008 to validate this model as followings.First,calculate the final output losses of all industries and overall industrial economy system in the static and danymic cases.Second,sift and select those industries which are more sensitive to disasters.Finally,the policy revelations were given.Such as constructe the new donation mechanism and rely on the technology progress to reduce the comprehensive loss of disaster. |
| Keywords: | technical coefficients matrix disasters Industrial economy system policy Revelations |
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