| 大数据背景下中国足球超级联赛球队比赛表现分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 李纪霞,杨璟勇,钱志坚,陈雄达,徐仰才.大数据背景下中国足球超级联赛球队比赛表现分析[J].武汉体育学院学报,2001,53(12):68-75. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李纪霞 杨璟勇 钱志坚 陈雄达 徐仰才 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 同济大学 体育教学部, 上海, 200092;2. 同济大学 国际足球学院, 上海, 200092;3. 同济大学 数学科学学院, 上海, 200092;4. 上海中医药大学 体育部, 上海, 201203 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家体育总局决策咨询研究项目（2018-C-07）；上海市体育社会科学研究课题（TYSKYJ201824）。 |
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| 摘 要： | 以中超联赛2014-2017赛季的技战术指标采集大数据为研究基础，运用因子分析、回归分析等统计方法，构建球队比赛表现分析模型，找出决定中超球队实力的关键性技战术要素，探讨技战术指标不同的序列组合与赛季成绩的相关关系，深度分析中超球队技战术表现的发展变化规律，为球队实力评价、比赛结果预测和技战术水平改善提供量化支持。结果显示：（1）中超球队比赛表现分析模型包含组织能力、传中能力、前场任意球、进攻效率、防守效率、把握机会能力、控球、转移、界外球、犯规、抢截球等维度；（2）局部加权线性回归的拟合程度好，模型的适用性广；（3）中超球队技战术水平整体呈现逐年下降趋势，无论优势球队还是降级球队，传中能力、把握得分机会和转移等核心竞争能力不同程度下滑；上游球队间的技战术水平差距缩小；犯规战术对下游球队适度有效。
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| 关 键 词： | 足球 大数据 中国足球超级联赛 技战术表现 因子分析 回归分析 |
Competition Performance of Chinese Football Super League Team under Background of Big Data |
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| LI Jixia,YANG Jingyong,QIAN ZhiJian,et al.Competition Performance of Chinese Football Super League Team under Background of Big Data[J].Journal of Wuhan Institute of Physical Education,2001,53(12):68-75. |
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| Authors: | LI Jixia YANG Jingyong QIAN ZhiJian |
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| Institution: | 1. P. E. Dept., Tongji University, 200092;2. International Football Academy, Tongji Univ., Shanghai 200092, China;3. Mathematics School, Tongji Univ., Shanghai, 200092, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the big data collected from the technique and tactics indicators of the Chinese Football Super League in the seasons from 2014 to 2017, this paper constructed a performance analysis model of the Chinese Football Super League teams by using factor analysis, regression analysis and other statistical methods. The purpose was to find out the key factors to determine the stability of the team strength, and to explore the correlation between the different sequence combinations of technique and tactics indicators and aggregate score, so as to provide reference for evaluating the team strength, predicting the results of the game and improving the team's technique and tactics level. It was shown that:(1) The model included organization ability, crossing ability, forward free kick, offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, finishing scoring chances, ball possession, transferring attack, throw-in, foul and tackle.(2) The results of local weighted linear regression showed that the degree of regression was good, indicating that the model was fit for more occasions.(3) The technique and tactics performance of the Chinese Football Super League teams showed a downward trend year by year. No matter the dominant team or the relegated team, the core competitiveness such as crossing ability, finishing scoring chan-ces and transferring attack decreased to varying degrees. The gap of the technique and tactics level between the top teams narrowed. The foul tactics was moderately effective for the bottom teams. |
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| Keywords: | football big data Chinese Football Super League technique and tactics performance factor anal-ysis regression analysis |
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