| 基于灰色模型和指数平滑的统计组合预测方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 王丰效,周伟萍.基于灰色模型和指数平滑的统计组合预测方法[J].喀什师范学院学报,2012,33(3):1-3,7. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王丰效 周伟萍 |
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| 作者单位： | 喀什师范学院数学系,新疆喀什,844008 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 指数平滑预测和离散灰色模型是两类不同特点的预测方法.考虑到单项预测方法的局限性,提出了利用指数平滑预测和离散灰色模型的统计组合预测方法;进一步利用相关系数这一相关性指标确定组合预测模型的权系数;最后通过一个应用实例分析了统计组合预测方法的预测精度,并说明了该方法的有效性和可行性.
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| 关 键 词： | 指数平滑法 灰色模型 组合预测 |
Statistical Combination Forecast Method Based on Exponential Smoothing and Grey Model |
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| WANG Feng-xiao,ZHOU Wei-ping.Statistical Combination Forecast Method Based on Exponential Smoothing and Grey Model[J].Journal of Kashgar Teachers College,2012,33(3):1-3,7. |
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| Authors: | WANG Feng-xiao ZHOU Wei-ping |
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| Institution: | (Department of Mathematics,Kashgar Teachers College,Kashgar 844008,Xinjiang) |
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| Abstract: | In view of the limitations in the single forecasting model,the new combination forecast method was put forward according to the exponential smoothing method and the discrete GM(1,1) model.And then,the weight coefficients are confirmed based on grey incidence degree.The application example indicates that the precision of combination forecast method is higher than single forecast models.So this new method is feasible and effective. |
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| Keywords: | Exponential smoothing method Discrete GM(1 1) model Combination forecast method Grey incid- ence degree |
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