| 晋江西溪流域洪水与暴雨时空分布特征的相关分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 林木生,陈兴伟,陈莹.晋江西溪流域洪水与暴雨时空分布特征的相关分析[J].资源科学,2011,33(12):2226-2231. |
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| 作者姓名： | 林木生 陈兴伟 陈莹 |
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| 作者单位： | 福建师范大学地理科学学院,福州,350007 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部博士点基金(编号：20103503110002)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于东南沿海地区暴雨洪水特点，以流域面积2466km。的晋江西溪为例，应用1970年代30场暴雨洪水实测资料，统计分析反映暴雨时空变化特征的一系列要素；应用多元线性回归模型，分别建立洪峰流量和洪量，与暴雨时空特征要素之间的多元相关关系。结果表明：①适当选取场次暴雨时空变化特征的要素，可以比较好建立暴雨洪水特征的经验关系；（④次降雨量、暴雨相对中心、暴雨时间变差系数和暴雨历时对洪峰流量有显著影响。其中，暴雨相对中心这一指标比较好地揭示了洪峰流量对暴雨和流域产汇流特征空间变化的综合响应；从时间要素上看，暴雨时间变差系数和暴雨历时共同影响洪峰流量的大小；③洪量与次降雨量和起涨流量关系显著。
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| 关 键 词： | 暴雨 时空变化 洪水 多元线性回归模型 晋江西溪流域 |
Regression Analysis of Flood Response to the Spatial and Temporal Variability of Storm in the Jinjiangxixi Watershed |
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| LIN Musheng,CHEN Xingwei and CHEN Ying.Regression Analysis of Flood Response to the Spatial and Temporal Variability of Storm in the Jinjiangxixi Watershed[J].Resources Science,2011,33(12):2226-2231. |
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| Authors: | LIN Musheng CHEN Xingwei and CHEN Ying |
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| Institution: | School of Geographic Science, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China;School of Geographic Science, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China;School of Geographic Science, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China |
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| Abstract: | Abstracts: Rainfall is the primary input to most hydrological systems. A key issue for hydrological sciences and practices is to assess the importance of spatial structure of rainfall and its representation for flood runoff generation. The Jinjiang watershed lying in southeast Fujian Province is one of the most developed regions in Fujian Province, where convective rainstorms and typhoon storms occur frequently in summer, and the loss caused by flood is often tremendous. Exploring the relationship between storm properties and flood peak and flood volume over this region will provide an important reference for flood forecasting. The objective of this study was to assess the ability of spatial and temporal measures of storm in explaining the runoff response of the watershed. Based on the characteristics of the storm flood in the southeast coastal area of China, the Jinjiangxixi watershed, covering an area of 2,466 km2, was selected to perform this study. For calculation of storm properties, spatial information of rainfall was collected. Historical hourly data were available at 13~25 rain gauges and Anxi flow gauges in the Xixi watershed. Several storm indices (e.g. duration, volume, centroid distance, temporal variation coefficient, and spatial variation coefficient) describing the spatial and temporal heterogeneity were estimated for 30 rainstorm flood events occurring in the 1970s. A multiple linear regression analysis was used to estimate the relationship between these storm indices and flood peak and flood volume. Results indicate that 1) If indices describing spatial and temporal variation of storm events were appropriately selected, a better empirical relationship between flow and the storm characteristics could be established; 2) The total storm volume, storm centroid distance, temporal variation coefficient of storm and storm duration seemed to have a significant influence on peak flood. The storm centroid distance was a promising index to investigate the integrated response of flood peak to spatial variability of the storm and characteristics of runoff generation and convergence. Moreover, the temporal variation coefficient of storm and storm duration jointly affected peak flow; 3) The relationship between flood volume and total areal storm volume and the initial discharge was very significant. The flood volume increased with larger storm volume and higher initial discharge. |
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| Keywords: | Storm Spatial and temporal variability Flood A multiple linear regression model Jinjiangxixi watershed |
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