| 有限寿命条件下技术创新项目期权博弈研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈连杰.有限寿命条件下技术创新项目期权博弈研究[J].技术与创新管理,2012,33(4):384-388. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈连杰 |
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| 作者单位： | 西南石油大学研究生学院,四川成都,610500 |
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| 摘 要： | 考虑技术创新项目由于存在竞争而导致的运营时间的有限性特征,将影响项目投资决策和项目价值的项目运营时间、投资成本和需求不确定性引入到期权博弈模型中,更合理的拟合项目的现实环境,求解企业在不确定投资条件下的投资阈值和项目价值,并对结果进行分析,得出结论。结果表明项目时间越短,投资阈值越高,项目价值越小;成本和需求不确定性程度越高,等待就越有价值,项目价值就越大。企业应在这两种价值影响因素中权衡,做出最优决策。
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| 关 键 词： | 技术创新项目 投资决策 期权博弈 市场不确定 有限寿命 |
Option Games in Finite Investment Project Life and Market Uncertainty |
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| CHEN Lian-jie.Option Games in Finite Investment Project Life and Market Uncertainty[J].Technology and Innovation Management,2012,33(4):384-388. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Lian-jie |
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| Institution: | CHEN Lian-jie(School of Economics and Management,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500,China) |
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| Abstract: | Considering the limited time of the project operation because of competition,this paper put the project life and the market uncertainty which will affect investment decisions and the value of the project into the option game model in order to fit the real environment of the project and to find out the investment threshold and the project value in different investment conditions.Then the results are analyzed,and conclusions were reached.The results showed that: The shorter the project life is,the higher the investment threshold,and the smaller the value of the project;The higher the cost and demand uncertainty is,the higher the investment threshold,and the bigger the value of the project.Enterprises should weigh two factors to make optimal decisions. |
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| Keywords: | technical innovation project investment decision option-game market uncertainty finite life |
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