| 黑河流域莺落峡站水文过程变异点的识别与分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 邹悦,张勃,戴声佩,杨明金.黑河流域莺落峡站水文过程变异点的识别与分析[J].资源科学,2011,33(7):1264-1271. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 邹悦 张勃 戴声佩 杨明金 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1. 西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,兰州,730070
2. 水利部珠江水利委员会水文局,广州,510611 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(编号：40961038)；中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(编号：KZCX2-YW-Q10-4)；公益性行业(气象)科研专项(编号：GYHY200806021-07)；生态经济学省级重点学科(编号：5001-021)。 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 水文过程变异点的识别与分析是近十几年来比较热点的问题之一,为准确识别黑河流域水文过程变异点,本文采用黑河流域莺落峡水文站1947年-2006年年径流序列资料,运用差积曲线-秩检验联合法来识别黑河流域水文过程变异点,并结合Brown-Forsythe法、有序聚类法、滑动F检验法来验证变异点的准确性,应用SPSS统计软件分析水文变异点前后数据变化特征。结果表明：黑河流域莺落峡水文站水文过程变异点为1959年和1979年,水文序列变化分为三个阶段,各阶段均值分别相差1.25亿m3、1.89亿m3。标准差值、变差系数值和偏差系数值变化显著,河流水文序列的趋势性和突变性特征反映了自然条件和人类活动对河流天然状态的水文序列产生了显著的影响。
|
| 关 键 词： | 黑河 水文序列 变异点 差积曲线 秩检验 |
Identification and Analysis of Mutations of Hydrological Processes at the Yingluoxia Station in the Heihe River Basin |
| |
| ZOU Yue,ZHANG Bo,DAI Shengpei and YANG Mingjin.Identification and Analysis of Mutations of Hydrological Processes at the Yingluoxia Station in the Heihe River Basin[J].Resources Science,2011,33(7):1264-1271. |
| |
| Authors: | ZOU Yue ZHANG Bo DAI Shengpei and YANG Mingjin |
| |
| Institution: | College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China;College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China;College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China;Bureau of Hydrology, Pearl River Water Resources Commission, Guangzhou 510611, China |
| |
| Abstract: | Identification and analysis of mutations of hydrological processes is one of the hot spots in hydrological studies. It is of important theoretical and practical significance for hydrologic analysis and modeling, hydrological forecasting, and water pollution control to analyze and understand the laws of hydrology and its sequence variations. The study investigated the times and characteristics of hydrological variability within the Heihe River basin which is a typical inland river basin in the northwest and provided reference for reasonable use and development of water resources in the basin. To accurately distinguish the change-point of hydrological processes, the authors adopted annual runoff series data of 60 years at hydrological monitoring stations of Yingluoxia in the Heihe river basin during the period 1947-2006. The difference plot curve-combined method of rank test was used to identify the change-point of hydrological processes. Brown-Forsythe method, sequential clustering method, and sliding F test method were jointly used to verify the accuracy of variation points. At the same time, hydrological characteristics of the data before and after the variation points were analyzed. Results show that 1959 and 1979 were the change points in the hydrological processes at the station of Yingluoxia. Changes in hydrological series were divided into three stages. The standard deviation, coefficient of variation, and deviation coefficient changed significantly at various stages. The average values of the phase difference ranged between 125×106m3 and 189×106m3. The characteristics of trends and mutations in hydrological series reflected that natural conditions and human activities had a significant impact on the natural state of the river hydrological sequence. Factors of climate change, such as temperature, rainfall, and evaporation, and human activities, such as over farmland reclamation, overgrazing, and the construction of reservoirs, could be responsible for the mutations of the runoff. The difference plot curve-combined method of rank test has been effectively used in the Heihe river basin; it can reduce the complexity of formulas and the corresponding assumptions compared to the other methods. However, in the calculation, there have relaxed requirements for the normality of data and the same condition of different sets of data to some extent. Measured data could not satisfy the requirements of general assumptions of statistical methods. The calculated variation points were generally consistent with the actual state of the regional environment. |
| |
| Keywords: | Heihe River Hydrological sequences Change point Residual mass curve |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《资源科学》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《资源科学》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
