| 中国各省耕地数量占补平衡趋势预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 张琳,张凤荣,薛永森,严良政.中国各省耕地数量占补平衡趋势预测[J].资源科学,2007,29(6):114-119. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张琳 张凤荣 薛永森 严良政 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京,100094
2. 国土资源部土地整理中心,北京,100035 |
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| 摘 要： | 1996年,出于保障国家粮食安全、控制耕地快速减少的考虑,我国实行了耕地总量动态平衡的土地管理政策。政策出台后,对建设占用耕地的势头起到了一定的遏制作用。但是,在未来一段时期内经济发展依然会继续占用耕地,而我国后备土地资源又十分有限,那么未来耕地占补平衡的前景将会如何。基于此,本文分析了9年来各省(市、自治区)耕地被建设占用的情况及其同经济发展的关系,并结合耕地后备资源状况,预测了未来各地区耕地占补平衡的趋势。结果表明:①我国各地区建设占用耕地情况差异悬殊,并且同经济发展指标密切相关。年均占用数量最多的是山东省,最少的是西藏自治区,两者相差近百倍;②采用3种模型对各省建设占用耕地数量进行趋势外推得到:2010年,浙江省将无法实现耕地占补平衡;2015年,北京、上海、贵州和云南几省市也将无法现耕地占补平衡;③如果按照我国目前建设占用耕地的平均速度测算,即使不计成本与效益开发所有勉强可以耕种的土地,要维持占补平衡,可开发耕地资源潜力最多只能维持39年。而且将有一半的省市10年内就会将所有可开发为耕地的未利用地全部开发完毕。
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| 关 键 词： | 耕地 占补平衡 各省 预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-7588（2007）06-0114-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2/2/2007 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 7/9/2007 12:00:00 AM |
Forecasting the Balance between Occupation and Complementarity of Cultivated Land by Provinces in China |
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| ZHANG Lin,ZHANG Feng-rong,XUE Yong-sen and YAN Liang-zheng.Forecasting the Balance between Occupation and Complementarity of Cultivated Land by Provinces in China[J].Resources Science,2007,29(6):114-119. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Lin ZHANG Feng-rong XUE Yong-sen and YAN Liang-zheng |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100094, China; 2. Center for Land Consolidation and Rehabilitation, Ministry of Land and Resources, Beijing 100035, China |
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| Abstract: | In recent years,the quantity of cultivated land in China has declined rapidly during the process of economic development.In order to solve the increasing problems of cultivated land resource shortage and food security,a land management policy of dynamic equilibrium of the total cultivated land has been implemented in China since 1996.In 1998,the policy of cultivated land's occupation and supplement balance was issued through the Land Law of the People's Republic of China(1998 Revision).Undoubtedly,this policy played an important role in cultivated land protection.In the next few years or decades,cultivated land will be occupied continuously with the economic growth,and the unused land resources in China are very limited,so the perspective of this policy implementation needs to be studied and forecasted.Based on such an idea,this paper analyzed the relationship between cultivated land occupation and economic growth during the past nine years,And Forecasted the balance of cultivated land occupation and complementarity in different regions based on the potential supply of cultivated land resources.The results revealed: 1) Cultivated land occupation was varied strongly in different regions and has close relationships with economic growth. Shandong Province has the highest annual average of cultivated land occupation, and Tibet Autonomous Region has the lowest annual average of cultivated land occupation,which is 1.07% of Shandong Province;2) Furthermore,the trend of cultivated land occupation has been extrapolated and predicted through three models, the results showed that Zhejiang Province will can't implement the balance of cultivated land in 2010,Beijing City,Shanghai City,Guizhou Province and Yunnan Province will can't implement the balance of cultivated land in 2015;3) in the case of current average speed of the cultivated land occupation,the cost of unused land cultivation are not considered,and the potential supply of uncultivated land can only make up for the occupation for 39 years.In addition,the unused land resources that can be cultivated will be exhausted in 10 years in half of the provinces. |
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| Keywords: | Cultivated land Occupation and supplement balance Province Forecast |
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