| 典型国家特定碳排放阶段影响因素研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王泳璇,王宪恩,史记,段海燕.典型国家特定碳排放阶段影响因素研究[J].资源科学,2013,35(10):1945-1952. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王泳璇 王宪恩 史记 段海燕 |
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| 作者单位： | 吉林大学地下水资源与环境教育部重点实验室, 长春 130021;吉林大学地下水资源与环境教育部重点实验室, 长春 130021;吉林大学地下水资源与环境教育部重点实验室, 长春 130021;吉林大学地下水资源与环境教育部重点实验室, 长春 130021 |
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| 基金项目： | 吉林省科技厅项目: “吉林省碳排放峰值预测与低碳发展政策研究”(编号: 20110638);吉林省科技厅项目: “吉林省民用建筑节能降耗对策研究”(编号: 20120606);国家自然科学基金项目: “应对气候变化的低碳经济区建设政策研究”(编号: 70941036);吉林省发改委项目: “低碳经济发展战略研究”. |
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| 摘 要： | 碳排放的不同演化阶段,影响因素的影响程度存在明显差异.我国目前处于碳排放强度高峰—人均碳排放高峰阶段,分析探讨典型国家这一阶段的碳排放影响,可为我国低碳经济发展提供针对性的理论指导.基于扩展STIRPAT模型,以碳排放强度高峰—人均碳排放高峰阶段为研究阶段,以丹麦和爱尔兰为研究对象,对该阶段的碳排放影响进行研究.结果表明,这一阶段中丹麦与爱尔兰碳排放因素影响程度存在差异,对比发现,当城市化发展达到较高的稳定水平,增碳效应逐渐降低;国际贸易中的碳排放转移影响越发显著;但人均国内生产总值仍为最主要的增碳因素,碳排放强度的下降对碳排放的减缓效果显著.
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| 关 键 词： | STIRPAT 碳排放强度高峰-人均碳排放高峰阶段 岭回归 影响因子 丹麦 爱尔兰 |
| 修稿时间： | 4/7/2013 12:00:00 AM |
Impact Factors in the Specific Stage of Carbon Emissions of Typical Countries |
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| WANG Yongxuan,WANG Xianen,SHI Ji and DUAN Haiyan.Impact Factors in the Specific Stage of Carbon Emissions of Typical Countries[J].Resources Science,2013,35(10):1945-1952. |
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| Authors: | WANG Yongxuan WANG Xianen SHI Ji and DUAN Haiyan |
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| Institution: | Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment, Ministry of Education, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China;Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment, Ministry of Education, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China;Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment, Ministry of Education, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China;Key Laboratory of Groundwater Resources and Environment, Ministry of Education, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China |
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| Abstract: | The factors that impact carbon emissions are different across different developmental stages. China is currently between carbon emissions intensity and carbon emissions per capita, and analyzing the impact of carbon emissions in other countries at this time can aid the development of a low-carbon economy. Based on an extended STIRPAT model we studied carbon emissions for Denmark and Ireland. We found that the impact of population is more significant to Denmark than Ireland, however, it is not because of population size, but because of carbon emissions per capita. For example, the higher carbon emissions per capita, the more significant impact of population. The results also show that the carbon transfer impact of international trade export is gradual. Denmark benefits from the carbon transfer of international trade export, which is a beneficiary, but Ireland is at a disadvantage in the carbon transfer of international trade export. Per capita GDP remains the most important factor, and a decrease in carbon intensity appears to be a more significant impact for reducing carbon emissions. Using these lessons we discuss the situation in China. During urbanization, China should make reasonable planning, maintain development in harmony with environment and advocate the consumption patterns of low carbon and energy conservation. The country should also ensuring economic growth, expand domestic demand, reduce the proportion of export trade, optimize industrial structure and focus on technologyintensive products. In addition, China should encourage the development of a low carbon technology industry, adjust energy structure, reduce carbon emissions per GDP and enhance the proportion of alternative energy. |
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| Keywords: | STIRPAT The stage between carbon emissions intensity and carbon emissions per capita Ridge regression Impact factors Denmark Ireland |
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