| 生活能源消费的人口敏感性分析——以中国城镇家庭户为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 傅崇辉,王文军,曾序春,张玲华,雷光和.生活能源消费的人口敏感性分析——以中国城镇家庭户为例[J].资源科学,2013,35(10):1933-1944. |
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| 作者姓名： | 傅崇辉 王文军 曾序春 张玲华 雷光和 |
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| 作者单位： | 广东医学院人文与管理学院, 东莞 523808;中国科学院广州能源研究所, 广州 510000;深圳市人口和计划生育科学研究所, 深圳 518000;深圳市人口和计划生育科学研究所, 深圳 518000;广东医学院人文与管理学院, 东莞 523808 |
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| 基金项目： | 广东省社科基金一般项目: “基于人口状态转移的居民生活碳排放研究”(编号: GD11CSH02);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目: “应对气候变化行动的交互作用机理研究”(编号: 13YJAZH022);广东医学院博士启动项目: “生活能源消费的人口敏感性研究”(编号: B2012075). |
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| 摘 要： | 人口可能不是能源消费的决定性因素或主要因素,但它作为能源消费系统中不可缺少的基础性参数,除了要关注人口数量,人口的结构性因素,以及对引起这些结构性因素变动的人口微观过程,都应该进行科学研究.本文构建了生活能源消费与人口敏感性关系的理论模型,并运用住户调查数据、人口普查数据,以及中国能源统计宏观数据对理论模型进行了实证检验.研究发现,即使是在相同的宏观人口水平下,不同微观人口变动也可能会导致完全不同的生活能源消费情景.人口自然变动、城镇化和老龄化对生活能源消费具有敏感性,人口老龄化的敏感性为负值.但除老年年龄组(60岁及以上)外,年龄结构并不敏感,而人口敏感性的关键钮带是“规模效应”.正是由于人口的结构性因素对生活能源消费有着多重敏感性,不能简单的以人口数量的增减作为判断生活能源消费量变化的唯一指标.事实上,作为结构性因素的人口城镇化已经超过了数量性因素的敏感性强度.最后,将研究结果用于情景分析,对2015年的生活能源消费进行了微观人口分析,并对进一步研究方向提出一些建议.
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| 关 键 词： | 人口敏感性 生活能源消费 规模效应 人口微观过程 |
| 收稿时间： | 3/4/2013 12:00:00 AM |
Population Sensitivity of Urban Energy Consumption |
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| FU Chonghui,WANG Wenjun,ZENG Xuchun,ZHANG Linghua and LEI Guanghe.Population Sensitivity of Urban Energy Consumption[J].Resources Science,2013,35(10):1933-1944. |
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| Authors: | FU Chonghui WANG Wenjun ZENG Xuchun ZHANG Linghua and LEI Guanghe |
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| Institution: | School of Humanities and Administration, Guangdong Medical College, Dongguan 523808, China;Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of Science, Guangzhou 510000, China;Shenzhen Institute of Population and Family Planning Research, Shenzhen 518000, China;Shenzhen Institute of Population and Family Planning Research, Shenzhen 518000, China;School of Humanities and Administration, Guangdong Medical College, Dongguan 523808, China |
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| Abstract: | Population may not be the most important factor with respect to energy consumption, but it is a fundamental parameter affecting total energy use. Whether micro-demographic changes alone (i.e., accompanied by little or no macro-demographic change) can result in different levels of residential energy consumption (REC) is an important scientific issue in the domain of energy consumption research. Therefore, the composition of the population and micro-demographic changes that may induce changes in population structure should be studied scientifically to ensure that the understanding of REC is based on appropriate demographic principles. Using REC from household surveys, demographic data from population censuses and macro-energy statistics, this study assesses a theoretical model of the population sensitivity of REC in urban China. Our study reveals that different micro-demographic processes may have different effects on REC, even when macro-demographic levels are identical or similar. The micro-demographic processes under certain macro-demographic levels have significant potential to affect REC, which indicates that it makes political and theoretical sense to re-consider the demographic component in energy consumption studies. Natural population change, urbanization and aging are sensitive to REC to different extents. However, population age structure is not sensitive to REC except for the 60 and older age group. Because of the multiple sensitivities of population to REC, population size cannot be the exclusive demographic indicator with which to judge changes in REC. Finally, the findings of population sensitivity are used to simulate REC scenarios in 2015 under different assumed micro-demographic processes, and several implications are proposed. The function of population policies in regulating and controlling REC is limited, but policymakers must carefully consider population pressure on natural resources and the environment because it is difficult to reverse the effects of demographic change. Micro-demographic processes should be understood accurately before a plan for energy conservation and emission reduction is instituted to ensure its scientific viability and feasibility. |
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| Keywords: | Population sensitivity Residential energy consumption Scale effect Microdemographic processes |
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