| SRES情景下青藏高原生态功能保护区水源涵养功能的变化研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 尹云鹤,吴绍洪,李华友,赵东升,杨小明,周景博.SRES情景下青藏高原生态功能保护区水源涵养功能的变化研究[J].资源科学,2013,35(10):2003-2010. |
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| 作者姓名： | 尹云鹤 吴绍洪 李华友 赵东升 杨小明 周景博 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101;中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101;中国环境保护部, 北京 100035;中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101;环境保护部环境与经济政策研究中心, 北京 100029;中国人民大学环境学院, 北京 100872 |
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| 基金项目： | 环境保护部公益性行业科研专项(编号: 201009056);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项: “应对气候变化的碳收支认证及相关问题”(编号: XDA05090300). |
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| 摘 要： | 预估分析未来水源涵养功能对气候变化的响应,对制定适应气候变化策略和措施具有科学指导意义.本文以青藏高原国家级生态功能保护区水源涵养功能为研究对象,利用SRES A2和B2 情景下区域气候模式的气候情景数据,通过改进的LPJ动态植被模型,模拟了1981-2100年生态功能保护区水源涵养功能对气候变化的响应.通过分析未来近期、中期和远期研究区水源涵养功能相对基准时段(1981-2010年)的动态变化,结果表明未来SRES情景下,研究区总体上水源涵养功能在近期以增强为主,主要受降水量增加的影响;而未来中期和远期水源涵养功能受水分实际蒸散增加的影响而减弱的可能性则更大,并随着增温幅度增加而减弱程度加强.
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| 关 键 词： | SRES情景 水源涵养功能 区域气候模式 青藏高原 |
Water Conservation Function Changes in Ecological Reserves on the Tibetan Plateau Under SRES Scenarios |
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| YIN Yunhe,WU Shaohong,LI Huayou,ZHAO Dongsheng,YANG Xiaoming and ZHOU Jingbo.Water Conservation Function Changes in Ecological Reserves on the Tibetan Plateau Under SRES Scenarios[J].Resources Science,2013,35(10):2003-2010. |
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| Authors: | YIN Yunhe WU Shaohong LI Huayou ZHAO Dongsheng YANG Xiaoming and ZHOU Jingbo |
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| Institution: | Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;Ministry of Environmental Protection, China, Beijing 100035, China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;Policy Research Center for Environment and Economy of the MEP, Beijing 100029, China;School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China |
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| Abstract: | It has been recognized that climate change has significant impacts on water conservation across the Tibetan Plateau. Analysis of the response of water conservation function to future climate change is important for planning strategies to adapt to climate change. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the regional scale impacts of climate change on the water conservation function(indicated by the difference in precipitation and actual evapotranspiration) of national ecological function reserve regions. Water conservation function responses to climate change from 1981-2100 were estimated based on the modified dynamic vegetation model LPJ, together with a regional climate model under SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios. Results show that in the near term,the water conservation function is likely to enhance relative to the baseline period in most of the national ecological function reserve regions on the Tibetan Plateau,mainly due to increased precipitation. However,in the mid-term and long term,the water conservation function of most regions would likely decrease,resulting from positive changes in actual water evapotranspiration. Water conservation function is predicted to decrease by 30% in the Source Region of the Yangtze River. Water conservation functional change is directly impacted by variations in precipitation and actual evapotranspiration,which represents complicated interactions among soil,vegetation and atmosphere under climate change. |
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| Keywords: | SRES Water conservation function Regional climate model Tibetan Plateau |
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