| 基于情景分析的河北省虚拟水战略环境影响评价 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 刘梅,许新宜,王红瑞,王峰.基于情景分析的河北省虚拟水战略环境影响评价[J].资源科学,2012,34(12):2282-2288. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 刘梅 许新宜 王红瑞 王峰 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 北京师范大学水科学研究院水沙科学教育部重点实验室, 北京100875;北京师范大学水科学研究院水沙科学教育部重点实验室, 北京100875;北京师范大学水科学研究院水沙科学教育部重点实验室, 北京100875;河北省南水北调工程建设管理局, 石家庄050035 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 北京市自然科学基金(编号:8083027)。 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 结合河北省虚拟水贸易情况和虚拟水战略核心内容,提出开展虚拟水战略环境影响评价的必要性、基本步骤和互动评价模式,通过设定粮食进口情景和产业结构调整情景,定量测算和初步探讨了不同情景下实施虚拟水战略对河北省生态环境、水资源消费和经济社会环境的影响,实现自然环境影响评价与社会环境影响评价的有机结合,最后提出不利影响减缓措施,旨在通过事前行动的环境评价寻求最佳战略方案,为河北省虚拟水战略的实施提供理论依据和决策支持。
|
| 关 键 词： | 虚拟水贸易 虚拟水战略 战略环境影响评价 情景分析 |
Strategic Environmental Assessment of Virtual Water Based on Scenario Analysis for Hebei Province, China |
| |
| LIU Mei,XU Xinyi,WANG Hongrui and WANG Feng.Strategic Environmental Assessment of Virtual Water Based on Scenario Analysis for Hebei Province, China[J].Resources Science,2012,34(12):2282-2288. |
| |
| Authors: | LIU Mei XU Xinyi WANG Hongrui and WANG Feng |
| |
| Institution: | College of Water Sciences, Key Laboratory for Water and Sediment Sciences of Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;College of Water Sciences, Key Laboratory for Water and Sediment Sciences of Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;College of Water Sciences, Key Laboratory for Water and Sediment Sciences of Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;The Construction and Administration Bureau of South-to-North Water Diversion Project of Hebei, Shijiazhuang 050035, China |
| |
| Abstract: | Hebei sustains a large number of virtual water outputs with scarce water resources and this places pressure on water resources and ecosystems. A virtual water strategy provides a new way to effectively alleviate water resource stress by using the comparative advantages of regional production and adjusting regional industrial structure. In order to prevent adverse effects when developing new strategies it is necessary to carry out environmental impact assessments. Considering food import and industrial structure adjustment, four different scenario were established: scenario A, import 20% of local food production; scenario B, import 40% of local food production; scenario C (steady development), the proportions of three industries are 10.3%, 48.7% and 41% in 2015, and 8.2%, 45.8% and 46% in 2020; and scenario D (rapid development), the proportion of three industries is 9.4%, 45.6%, and 45% in 2015, and 8%, 42%, and 50% in 2020. The effect of the virtual water strategy on the ecological environment, water consumption and economic and social environment is calculated and discussed based on scenario analysis. Our results show that food import reduces local agricultural water consumption, and this water could be used for forestation. Food imports effect crops or organisms reliant on high water consumption crops. The implementation of a virtual water strategy requires that grains are purchased to relieve water supply pressures, which results in financial loss to some extent. As far as small-scale production is concerned, food imports may discourage peasants to grow food, and even cause as food safety and social safety issues. In conclusion, virtual water strategies may have a positive and negative influence on the ecological, economic and social environment. Scenario B and C can return 8.76 million ha of farmland to forest and grassland in 2015, which is an appropriate strategy with a positive effect on ecological environment. |
| |
| Keywords: | Virtual water trade Virtual water strategy Strategic environmental assessment Scenario analysis |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《资源科学》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《资源科学》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
