| 2021年中国经济增长速度的预测分析与政策建议 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈锡康,杨翠红,祝坤福,王会娟,李鑫茹,姜青言.2021年中国经济增长速度的预测分析与政策建议[J].中国科学院院刊,2021,36(1):37-46. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈锡康 杨翠红 祝坤福 王会娟 李鑫茹 姜青言 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院预测科学研究中心 北京 100190;中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院预测科学研究中心 北京 100190;中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 北京 100190;中国科学院大学 经济与管理学院 北京 100190;中国人民大学 经济学院 北京 100872;中央财经大学 统计与数学学院 北京 100081;首都经济贸易大学 经济学院 北京 100070 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金（71988101、61873261） |
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| 摘 要： | 2021年中国面临着新冠肺炎疫情和复杂国际形势的共同影响,未来经济发展方向备受关注。文章依据经济理论、现实经验、生产要素变化等,系统分析和预测了中国中长期经济增长速度的变动趋势为呈波浪形下降。基于投入产出技术、计量经济学、景气分析法、专家分析法、情景分析等,提出了年度GDP增速预测的系统综合因素预测法。在对2020年中国全年经济发展进行简要回顾的基础上,根据目前国内、国际形势对2021年中国经济增长速度做出了预测:预计2021年中国经济将实现恢复性增长,全年增速为8.5%左右。文章进而基于经济形势分析提出了促进中国经济发展的相关政策建议:继续促进消费,稳增长、促发展,建设科技创新型国家,加快产业结构转型升级。
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| 关 键 词： | 经济预测 经济形势分析 国内生产总值 政策建议 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021/1/4 0:00:00 |
Forecast of China's Economic Growth Rate in 2021 and Policy Suggestions |
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| CHEN Xikang,YANG Cuihong,ZHU Kunfu,WANG Huijuan,LI Xinru,JIANG Qingyan.Forecast of China''s Economic Growth Rate in 2021 and Policy Suggestions[J].Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,2021,36(1):37-46. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Xikang YANG Cuihong ZHU Kunfu WANG Huijuan LI Xinru JIANG Qingyan |
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| Institution: | Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China;School of Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China;School of Statistics and Mathematics, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 100081, China;School of Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China |
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| Abstract: | Under the joint impact of the COVID-19 epidemic and the complex international situation, the future direction of China''s economic development has attracted much attention. This study systematically analyzes and forecasts the development trend and regularity of China''s medium and long-term economic growth rate. It is expected that the medium and long-term economic growth rate of China will show a downward trend in a wave shape. Based on the systematic integrated prediction approach on annual GDP growth proposed by our team, this study reviews China''s economic development in 2020 and forecasts China''s economic growth rate in 2021. It is expected that China''s economy will achieve a restorative growth with an annual growth rate of about 8.5% in 2021. The policy suggestions are further proposed based on the analysis, including promoting domestic consumption, stabilizing economic growth and development, building a science and technology innovation-oriented country, as well as accelerating the transformation of industrial structure. |
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| Keywords: | economic forecast economic situation analysis Gross Domestic Product (GDP) policy sugg |
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